Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 20/11, 22:00

Prediction: Cobresal vs Audax Italiano

Team pages: Cobresal · Audax Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Cobresal1.33

Audax Italiano1.2

1X2

39% 27% 33%

Cobresal Draw Audax Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cobresal 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWDDDL

Audax Italiano 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWDDLL

Head-to-head

Cobresal 2–1–3 Audax Italiano (6 last)

Audax Italiano2-1Cobresal
Cobresal1-1Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano1-2Cobresal
Cobresal0-1Audax Italiano
Cobresal0-1Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano0-1Cobresal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cobresal 1469 · Audax Italiano 1487

	Cobresal	Draw	Audax Italiano
Our model	38%	29%	32%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Audax Italiano: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cobresal	Audax Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	1.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.77

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +3’	2.30	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +14’	2.35	3.75	2.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobresal 2–1–3 Audax Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	2-1 HT 1-1	Cobresal
04/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Cobresal	1-1 HT 0-1	Audax Italiano
31/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	1-2 HT 0-2	Cobresal
17/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Cobresal	0-1 HT 0-1	Audax Italiano
25/09/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Cobresal	0-1 HT 0-0	Audax Italiano
30/04/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	0-1 HT 0-0	Cobresal

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	27	19	4	4	59	30	61
2	Universidad de Chile	27	15	6	6	47	22	51
3	Universidad Catolica	27	15	4	8	56	37	49
4	Deportes Limache	27	12	4	11	48	40	40
5	Everton de Vina	27	11	7	9	43	35	40
6	Coquimbo Unido	27	11	5	11	39	36	38
7	Palestino	27	11	5	11	39	38	38
8	Deportes Concepcion	27	11	5	11	30	30	38
9	La Serena	27	9	10	8	40	42	37
10	Huachipato	27	10	6	11	35	41	36
11	Nublense	27	9	8	10	31	41	35
12	O'Higgins	27	9	4	14	32	42	31
13	Audax Italiano	27	7	9	11	28	36	30
14	Cobresal	27	7	6	14	39	50	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	27	7	5	15	22	49	26
16	Union La Calera	27	6	6	15	24	43	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cobresal	Audax Italiano
Everton de Vina	2-2 D	1-1 D
O'Higgins	1-1 D	1-0 W
Coquimbo Unido	3-2 W	0-1 L
Deportes Limache	0-3 L	0-2 L
Deportes Concepcion	0-2 L	1-0 W
Universidad Catolica	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Audax Italiano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cobresal

LLDWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
01/11	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
25/10	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
10/10	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
12/09	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
08/09	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-3	1	6	L
29/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
23/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-3	7	5	D
16/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
08/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	2	4	L

Audax Italiano

DDDLWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
02/11	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
29/10	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	3	10	D
24/10	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
14/09	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
05/09	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
30/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-5	6	1	L
22/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
16/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
11/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cobresal vs Audax Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobresal win (39%). Probabilities: Cobresal 39%, draw 27%, Audax Italiano 33%.

How many goals are expected in Cobresal vs Audax Italiano?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Cobresal 1.33 · Audax Italiano 1.2), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Audax Italiano?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.