Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 21/11, 00:30
Prediction: Palestino vs Union La Calera
Team pages: Palestino · Union La Calera
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Palestino1.57
Union La Calera0.92
1X2
Palestino
Draw
Union La Calera
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Palestino
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Union La Calera
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palestino
4–1–1
Union La Calera
(6 last)
- Union La Calera1-2Palestino
- Union La Calera1-2Palestino
- Palestino1-0Union La Calera
- Union La Calera2-1Palestino
- Palestino0-0Union La Calera
- Union La Calera2-3Palestino
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palestino 1500 · Union La Calera 1466
| Palestino | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Palestino: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palestino | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.8 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palestino 4–1–1 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Palestino |
| 30/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Palestino |
| 14/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 18/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Palestino |
| 17/03/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 07/08/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Palestino |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 30 | 61 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 22 | 51 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 37 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 40 |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 35 | 40 |
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| 7 | Palestino | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 38 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 38 |
| 9 | La Serena | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 42 | 37 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 41 | 36 |
| 11 | Nublense | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 41 | 35 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 42 | 31 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 36 | 30 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 50 | 27 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 49 | 26 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 24 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palestino | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|
| La Serena | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportes Concepcion | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Colo Colo | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportes Limache | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| O'Higgins | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Huachipato | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palestino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/11 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 12/10 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/08 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/10 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palestino win (52%). Probabilities: Palestino 52%, draw 27%, Union La Calera 21%.
How many goals are expected in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Palestino 1.57 · Union La Calera 0.92), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.