Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 22/11, 00:30

Prediction: Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense

Team pages: Universidad de Concepcion · Nublense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Universidad de Concepcion1.46

Nublense1.43

1X2

37% 28% 36%

Universidad de Concepcion Draw Nublense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad de Concepcion 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLW

Nublense 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Universidad de Concepcion 0–1–5 Nublense (6 last)

Universidad de Concepcion0-1Nublense
Nublense4-2Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense2-1Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense2-2Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion0-2Nublense
Nublense2-0Universidad de Concepcion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad de Concepcion 1409 · Nublense 1479

	Universidad de Concepcion	Draw	Nublense
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	36%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nublense (rating 1409 vs 1479).
H2H favours Nublense: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad de Concepcion	Nublense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.59
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +6’	2.55	3.25	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	2.59	3.51	2.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Concepcion 0–1–5 Nublense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Chile Cup	Universidad de Concepcion	0-1 HT 0-0	Nublense
26/06/26 Chile Cup	Nublense	4-2 HT 1-1	Universidad de Concepcion
07/06/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Nublense	2-1 HT 1-0	Universidad de Concepcion
23/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	2-2 HT 2-0	Universidad de Concepcion
31/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Universidad de Concepcion	0-2 HT 0-1	Nublense
06/04/25 Chile Cup	Nublense	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad de Concepcion

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	27	19	4	4	59	30	61
2	Universidad de Chile	27	15	6	6	47	22	51
3	Universidad Catolica	27	15	4	8	56	37	49
4	Deportes Limache	27	12	4	11	48	40	40
5	Everton de Vina	27	11	7	9	43	35	40
6	Coquimbo Unido	27	11	5	11	39	36	38
7	Palestino	27	11	5	11	39	38	38
8	Deportes Concepcion	27	11	5	11	30	30	38
9	La Serena	27	9	10	8	40	42	37
10	Huachipato	27	10	6	11	35	41	36
11	Nublense	27	9	8	10	31	41	35
12	O'Higgins	27	9	4	14	32	42	31
13	Audax Italiano	27	7	9	11	28	36	30
14	Cobresal	27	7	6	14	39	50	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	27	7	5	15	22	49	26
16	Union La Calera	27	6	6	15	24	43	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad de Concepcion	Nublense
O'Higgins	3-2 W	0-1 L
Colo Colo	1-6 L	1-2 L
Deportes Limache	0-1 L	0-2 L
Coquimbo Unido	0-1 L	2-1 W
Universidad de Chile	2-1 W	0-6 L
Everton de Vina	1-3 L	1-3 L
La Serena	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad de Concepcion

LLWLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
30/10	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-5	1-6	3	4	L
26/10	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
10/10	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
03/10	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
07/09	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-2	7	8	L
03/09	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
30/08	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	0	7	W
25/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-3	1-3	4	7	L
15/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Nublense

WWLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
31/10	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
25/10	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/10	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-6	3	2	L
12/09	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-3	4	6	L
06/09	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
03/09	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
30/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
16/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad de Concepcion win (37%). Probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 37%, draw 28%, Nublense 36%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Universidad de Concepcion 1.46 · Nublense 1.43), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.