Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 22/11, 16:00

Prediction: Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion

Team pages: Huachipato · Deportes Concepcion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Huachipato1.24

Deportes Concepcion1.21

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Huachipato Draw Deportes Concepcion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Huachipato 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWWDDL

Deportes Concepcion 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDDLWW

Head-to-head

Huachipato 1–1–4 Deportes Concepcion (6 last)

Huachipato1-2Deportes Concepcion
Deportes Concepcion3-2Huachipato
Deportes Concepcion2-0Huachipato
Deportes Concepcion0-1Huachipato
Huachipato2-2Deportes Concepcion
Deportes Concepcion1-0Huachipato

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Huachipato 1448 · Deportes Concepcion 1549

	Huachipato	Draw	Deportes Concepcion
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Concepcion (rating 1448 vs 1549).
H2H favours Deportes Concepcion: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Huachipato	Deportes Concepcion
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.60 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.36
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +4’	2.50	3.30	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +8’	2.60	3.36	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Huachipato 1–1–4 Deportes Concepcion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Chile Cup	Huachipato	1-2 HT 1-0	Deportes Concepcion
25/06/26 Chile Cup	Deportes Concepcion	3-2 HT 1-0	Huachipato
24/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Concepcion	2-0 HT 1-0	Huachipato
05/05/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Deportes Concepcion	0-1 HT 0-0	Huachipato
21/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Huachipato	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportes Concepcion
08/10/25 Chile Regional Cup	Deportes Concepcion	1-0 HT 1-0	Huachipato

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	27	19	4	4	59	30	61
2	Universidad de Chile	27	15	6	6	47	22	51
3	Universidad Catolica	27	15	4	8	56	37	49
4	Deportes Limache	27	12	4	11	48	40	40
5	Everton de Vina	27	11	7	9	43	35	40
6	Coquimbo Unido	27	11	5	11	39	36	38
7	Palestino	27	11	5	11	39	38	38
8	Deportes Concepcion	27	11	5	11	30	30	38
9	La Serena	27	9	10	8	40	42	37
10	Huachipato	27	10	6	11	35	41	36
11	Nublense	27	9	8	10	31	41	35
12	O'Higgins	27	9	4	14	32	42	31
13	Audax Italiano	27	7	9	11	28	36	30
14	Cobresal	27	7	6	14	39	50	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	27	7	5	15	22	49	26
16	Union La Calera	27	6	6	15	24	43	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Huachipato	Deportes Concepcion
Union La Calera	0-1 L	1-1 D
La Serena	0-0 D	1-3 L
Audax Italiano	1-1 D	0-1 L
Universidad de Concepcion	2-0 W	1-0 W
Colo Colo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Palestino	1-5 L	1-0 W
Everton de Vina	1-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Huachipato

LLLLDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
01/11	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
24/10	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
10/10	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
03/10	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
06/09	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
22/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
18/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-5	2	4	L
08/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-3	1-4	3	6	L
02/08	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	2	3	L

Deportes Concepcion

WWDWLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
03/11	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/10	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-3	3	7	L
11/10	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
13/09	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
05/09	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
30/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Huachipato win (36%). Probabilities: Huachipato 36%, draw 29%, Deportes Concepcion 35%.

How many goals are expected in Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Huachipato 1.24 · Deportes Concepcion 1.21), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.