Football · Finland Ykkosliiga · 25/07, 15:00

Prediction: MP vs KTP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

MP1.2

KTP1.46

1X2

30% 28% 42%

MP Draw KTP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

MP 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLWDL

KTP 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

MP 0–1–5 KTP (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTP (rating 1474 vs 1569).
H2H favours KTP: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MP	KTP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	3.9 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.91

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.36 → 5.36	Pinn 5.36
X	4.13 → 4.13	Pinn 4.13
2	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15	5.36	4.13	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MP 0–1–5 KTP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Finland Ykkosliiga	KTP	1-0 HT 0-0	MP
25/02/26 Finland Ykkoscup	KTP	1-1 HT 1-0	MP
06/10/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	MP	0-5 HT 0-2	KTP
02/06/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	MP	1-2 HT 0-1	KTP
13/04/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	KTP	4-0 HT 0-0	MP
17/02/24 Finland Ykkoscup	MP	1-5 HT 0-3	KTP

Standings · Finland Ykkosliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PK-35	15	10	3	2	25	8	33
2	KTP	15	10	2	3	25	15	32
3	Jippo	15	7	6	2	22	11	27
4	FC Haka	15	7	4	4	26	17	25
5	JaPS	15	7	1	7	14	23	22
6	MP	15	5	2	8	14	19	17
7	KaPa	14	4	4	6	17	22	16
8	Ekenäs IF	15	5	1	9	21	30	16
9	Klubi-04	14	1	6	7	12	18	9
10	SJK II	15	1	5	9	7	20	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MP	KTP
Jippo	1-3 L	3-3 D
SJK II	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Haka	2-1 W	2-0 W
PK-35	1-2 L	0-1 L
Klubi-04	2-2 D	1-0 W
Ekenäs IF	0-1 L	5-1 W
JaPS	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KTP (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

MP

LLWWLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Jippo Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
11/07	SJK II Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
05/07	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
26/06	PK-35 Finland Ykkosliiga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
14/06	Klubi-04 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	2-2	2	7	D
06/06	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
31/05	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
22/05	JaPS Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/05	Jippo Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-3	9	3	L
13/05	FC Lahti Finland Cup	1-1	1-3	2	1	L

KTP

WWWWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	PK-35 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-1	10	7	L
10/07	JaPS Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	4-1	7	3	W
03/07	Jippo Finland Ykkosliiga	2-2	3-3	9	4	D
27/06	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/06	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	2-1	5-1	10	5	W
08/06	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	0-2	7	9	L
05/06	KaPa Finland Ykkosliiga	1-1	2-1	13	5	W
29/05	SJK II Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-0	10	2	W
23/05	Klubi-04 Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/05	JaPS Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MP vs KTP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTP win (42%). Probabilities: MP 30%, draw 28%, KTP 42%.

How many goals are expected in MP vs KTP?

The model expects 2.66 goals (MP 1.2 · KTP 1.46), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MP vs KTP?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.