Football · USA USL League One · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC

Team pages: New York Cosmos · Spokane Velocity FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

New York Cosmos1.08

Spokane Velocity FC1.63

1X2

24% 26% 49%

New York Cosmos Draw Spokane Velocity FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Cosmos 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDDLLL

Spokane Velocity FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

New York Cosmos 0–1 Spokane Velocity FC (1 last)

Spokane Velocity FC3-1New York Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Cosmos 1398 · Spokane Velocity FC 1542

	New York Cosmos	Draw	Spokane Velocity FC
Our model	24%	27%	49%
Market	25%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spokane Velocity FC (rating 1398 vs 1542).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Cosmos	Spokane Velocity FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.77
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.69 ★
2	1.70 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:15 +1’	3.90	3.60	1.70
09:21 +2’	3.60▼	3.50▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +5’	3.78	3.71	1.79
01:51 +1’	3.77▼	3.69▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 Spokane Velocity FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	3-1 HT 3-0	New York Cosmos

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	19	12	2	5	31	21	38
2	Charlotte Independence	18	11	3	4	42	27	36
3	Forward Madison FC	17	11	2	4	36	17	35
4	One Knoxville SC	18	10	3	5	31	20	33
5	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
6	AC Boise	20	9	4	7	29	28	31
7	Antelope Valley Alta	21	7	8	6	29	26	29
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	16	9	1	6	30	22	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	18	7	6	5	25	19	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	19	5	8	6	21	26	23
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	18	5	6	7	29	31	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	17	5	3	9	20	30	18
15	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Cosmos	Spokane Velocity FC
Richmond Kickers	0-2 L	2-0 W
AC Boise	1-2 L	2-1 W
Westchester SC	0-3 L	2-1 W
Forward Madison FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
One Knoxville SC	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spokane Velocity FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York Cosmos

LLLLWDDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	12	4	L
21/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
14/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
07/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup	0-3	1-4	3	8	L

Spokane Velocity FC

WLLWLLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	6	6	W
23/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
19/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
11/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Cup	1-1	3-1	2	1	W
05/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
02/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
25/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
21/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	0-4	10	4	L
14/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
07/06	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-0	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spokane Velocity FC win (49%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 24%, draw 26%, Spokane Velocity FC 49%.

How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model expects 2.72 goals (New York Cosmos 1.08 · Spokane Velocity FC 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.