Football · USA USL League One · 02/08, 01:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Sarasota Paradise1.52

FC Naples1.09

1X2

47% 27% 27%

Sarasota Paradise Draw FC Naples

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDDL

FC Naples 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 1–2 FC Naples (3 last)

FC Naples0-2Sarasota Paradise
FC Naples2-0Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise1-2FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1484 · FC Naples 1410

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarasota Paradise (rating 1484 vs 1410).
H2H favours FC Naples: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.06 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:09 +12’	1.91	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:33 +1’	2.16	3.21	3.14
00:34 +2’	2.06▼	3.44▲	3.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 1–0–2 FC Naples

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 USA USL Cup	FC Naples	0-2 HT 0-1	Sarasota Paradise
12/04/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-0 HT 0-0	Sarasota Paradise
19/03/25 USA US Open Cup	Sarasota Paradise	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	18	11	2	5	29	21	35
2	Charlotte Independence	17	10	3	4	39	26	33
3	One Knoxville SC	17	10	3	4	30	17	33
4	Forward Madison FC	16	10	2	4	34	17	32
5	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
6	AC Boise	19	9	3	7	29	28	30
7	Antelope Valley Alta	19	7	8	4	26	21	29
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	16	9	1	6	30	22	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	17	7	6	4	25	17	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	18	5	7	6	21	26	22
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	17	5	5	7	26	28	20
12	Westchester SC	18	5	4	9	28	25	19
13	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
14	Greenville Triumph SC	16	5	2	9	17	27	17
15	FC Naples	18	5	2	11	19	30	17
16	Richmond Kickers	17	3	3	11	13	33	12
17	New York Cosmos	17	3	2	12	18	38	11

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	FC Naples
Union Omaha	2-0 W	1-2 L
New York Cosmos	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sarasota Paradise (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sarasota Paradise

LWWWLWLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Miami FC USA USL Cup	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
07/06	FC Naples USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
31/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
28/05	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	0	2	W
25/05	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

FC Naples

WLLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
12/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
21/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	3-4	6	4	L
07/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
04/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-5	8	5	L
31/05	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
24/05	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarasota Paradise win (47%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 47%, draw 27%, FC Naples 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.52 · FC Naples 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.