Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 01:00

Prediction: Hartford Athletic vs Charleston Battery

Team pages: Hartford Athletic · Charleston Battery

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Hartford Athletic1.33

Charleston Battery1.48

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Hartford Athletic Draw Charleston Battery

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartford Athletic 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Charleston Battery 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hartford Athletic 1–1–4 Charleston Battery (6 last)

Charleston Battery1-2Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic1-2Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery4-2Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic2-2Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery1-0Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic3-4Charleston Battery

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartford Athletic 1572 · Charleston Battery 1541

	Hartford Athletic	Draw	Charleston Battery
Our model	33%	28%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charleston Battery: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartford Athletic	Charleston Battery
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.79
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.44
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.40 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +19’	2.70	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +5’	2.76	3.40	2.38
16:16 +3’	2.79▲	3.44▲	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartford Athletic 1–1–4 Charleston Battery

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	1-2 HT 1-0	Hartford Athletic
15/06/25 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	1-2 HT 0-1	Charleston Battery
03/05/25 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	4-2 HT 2-1	Hartford Athletic
13/07/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	2-2 HT 2-0	Charleston Battery
05/05/24 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	1-0 HT 1-0	Hartford Athletic
18/06/23 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	3-4 HT 2-1	Charleston Battery

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	26	15	7	4	45	23	52
2	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
3	Detroit City FC	25	11	8	6	29	19	41
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
6	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
7	Indy Eleven	25	9	6	10	32	31	33
8	Rhode Island FC	24	9	5	10	35	28	32
9	Miami FC	26	7	9	10	32	43	30
10	Birmingham Legion FC	25	4	11	10	36	42	23
11	Loudoun United FC	25	4	11	10	31	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	25	4	6	15	25	49	18
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	31	69	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartford Athletic	Charleston Battery
Las Vegas Lights FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Birmingham Legion FC	3-2 W	2-2 D
Miami FC	2-1 W	5-0 W
Loudoun United FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charleston Battery (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartford Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
13/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
30/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	6	6	W
16/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Charleston Battery

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
20/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	6	3	D
03/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	7	6	L
30/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
25/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-0	2	5	W
16/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-2	1-3	3	8	L
09/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
02/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
26/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartford Athletic vs Charleston Battery?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Charleston Battery win (40%). Probabilities: Hartford Athletic 33%, draw 27%, Charleston Battery 40%.

How many goals are expected in Hartford Athletic vs Charleston Battery?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Hartford Athletic 1.33 · Charleston Battery 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartford Athletic vs Charleston Battery?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.