Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 23:00

Prediction: Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Sporting JAX · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Sporting JAX1

Louisville City FC2.09

1X2

17% 21% 62%

Sporting JAX Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting JAX 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWLLL

Louisville City FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDDLWD

Head-to-head

Sporting JAX 0–1 Louisville City FC (1 last)

Louisville City FC1-0Sporting JAX

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting JAX 1399 · Louisville City FC 1516

	Sporting JAX	Draw	Louisville City FC
Our model	16%	22%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louisville City FC (rating 1399 vs 1516).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting JAX	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.2	3.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +25’	5.25	4.33	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting JAX 0–0–1 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting JAX

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	26	15	7	4	45	23	52
2	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
3	Detroit City FC	25	11	8	6	29	19	41
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
6	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
7	Indy Eleven	25	9	6	10	32	31	33
8	Rhode Island FC	24	9	5	10	35	28	32
9	Miami FC	26	7	9	10	32	43	30
10	Birmingham Legion FC	25	4	11	10	36	42	23
11	Loudoun United FC	25	4	11	10	31	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	25	4	6	15	25	49	18
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	31	69	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting JAX	Louisville City FC
Loudoun United FC	1-4 L	2-1 W
Hartford Athletic	0-2 L	2-2 D
Rhode Island FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Birmingham Legion FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Indy Eleven	0-1 L	1-2 L
El Paso Locomotive FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting JAX

DLLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
17/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
06/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
19/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	5	4	D

Louisville City FC

WLDWLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L
30/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	10	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Louisville City FC win (62%). Probabilities: Sporting JAX 17%, draw 21%, Louisville City FC 62%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Sporting JAX 1 · Louisville City FC 2.09), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.