Football · USA USL Championship · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion FC

Team pages: Sporting JAX · Birmingham Legion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Sporting JAX1.59

Birmingham Legion FC2.08

1X2

28% 24% 48%

Sporting JAX Draw Birmingham Legion FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting JAX 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Birmingham Legion FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDDLWL

Head-to-head

Sporting JAX 1–0 Birmingham Legion FC (1 last)

Birmingham Legion FC2-3Sporting JAX

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting JAX 1415 · Birmingham Legion FC 1461

	Sporting JAX	Draw	Birmingham Legion FC
Our model	29%	23%	48%
Market	28%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham Legion FC (rating 1415 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting JAX	Birmingham Legion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.9	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.70

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.34
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +7’	3.25	3.70	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:13 +67’	3.34	3.87	1.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting JAX 1–0–0 Birmingham Legion FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	2-3 HT 0-0	Sporting JAX

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	15	7	5	46	25	52
2	Detroit City FC	27	13	8	6	33	20	47
3	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Rhode Island FC	26	11	5	10	39	29	38
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
7	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
8	Miami FC	28	9	9	10	38	45	36
9	Indy Eleven	27	9	7	11	33	33	34
10	Loudoun United FC	26	4	12	10	32	44	24
11	Birmingham Legion FC	26	4	11	11	36	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	27	4	6	17	27	55	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	32	73	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting JAX	Birmingham Legion FC
Hartford Athletic	0-2 L	2-3 L
Rhode Island FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
Brooklyn FC	1-4 L	4-0 W
Indy Eleven	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham Legion FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting JAX

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
26/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
17/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
06/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Birmingham Legion FC

WLLLDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
23/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
20/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-2	0-4	7	4	L
17/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-2	4-4	9	5	D
13/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	1	3	D
06/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
23/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-3	5	2	L
16/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	0	5	L
03/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birmingham Legion FC win (48%). Probabilities: Sporting JAX 28%, draw 24%, Birmingham Legion FC 48%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Sporting JAX 1.59 · Birmingham Legion FC 2.08), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.