Football · Norway Division 1 · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Sogndal vs Raufoss

Team pages: Sogndal · Raufoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Sogndal2.46

Raufoss1.33

1X2

61% 21% 18%

Sogndal Draw Raufoss

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sogndal 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLLDL

Raufoss 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Sogndal 1–3–2 Raufoss (6 last)

Raufoss3-1Sogndal
Sogndal1-1Raufoss
Raufoss1-3Sogndal
Sogndal2-2Raufoss
Raufoss4-1Sogndal
Sogndal1-1Raufoss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sogndal 1477 · Raufoss 1472

	Sogndal	Draw	Raufoss
Our model	61%	20%	19%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Raufoss: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sogndal	Raufoss
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	1 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	3.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +7’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogndal 1–3–2 Raufoss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Norway Division 1	Raufoss	3-1 HT 2-1	Sogndal
21/03/26 Club Friendly List	Sogndal	1-1 HT 1-0	Raufoss
22/10/25 Norway Division 1	Raufoss	1-3 HT 1-2	Sogndal
31/05/25 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	2-2 HT 1-0	Raufoss
02/09/24 Norway Division 1	Raufoss	4-1 HT 2-0	Sogndal
22/05/24 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	1-1 HT 1-0	Raufoss

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	23	17	1	5	72	39	52
2	Kongsvinger	23	15	5	3	68	35	50
3	Stromsgodset	23	14	6	3	60	31	48
4	Stabaek	23	14	3	6	57	29	45
5	Odd BK	23	10	6	7	47	36	36
6	Bryne	23	11	2	10	32	31	35
7	Hodd	23	10	4	9	38	45	34
8	Egersund	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
9	Ranheim	23	8	4	11	56	58	28
10	Lyn 1896	23	8	4	11	39	48	28
11	Moss	23	7	4	12	38	52	25
12	Strommen	23	7	4	12	35	52	25
13	Sandnes Ulf	23	7	3	13	32	42	24
14	Sogndal	23	6	5	12	38	53	23
15	Asane	23	5	5	13	34	52	19
16	Raufoss	23	6	1	16	26	61	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sogndal	Raufoss
Stabaek	1-2 L	0-2 L
Strommen	1-1 D	1-3 L
Haugesund	0-2 L	2-7 L
Stromsgodset	2-3 L	0-2 L
Moss	2-2 D	2-1 W
Sandnes Ulf	2-0 W	0-3 L
Kongsvinger	1-5 L	1-9 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Sogndal (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sogndal

LWLLWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
13/09	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
05/09	Haugesund Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
30/08	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
26/08	Moss Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
16/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
09/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
02/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-3	2-3	7	2	L
26/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
03/07	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-4	1-5	10	1	L

Raufoss

WWLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
13/09	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
05/09	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	0-3	1-9	2	0	L
30/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	0-3	13	2	L
26/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
16/08	Asane Norway Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
09/08	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-4	2-7	1	6	L
02/08	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
26/07	Moss Norway Division 1	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
03/07	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sogndal vs Raufoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sogndal win (61%). Probabilities: Sogndal 61%, draw 21%, Raufoss 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sogndal vs Raufoss?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Sogndal 2.46 · Raufoss 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sogndal vs Raufoss?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.