Football · Norway Eliteserien · 20/11, 19:00

Prediction: Molde vs Bodo/Glimt

Team pages: Molde · Bodo/Glimt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Molde1.77

Bodo/Glimt2.35

1X2

28% 22% 50%

Molde Draw Bodo/Glimt

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Molde 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Bodo/Glimt 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Molde 1–1–4 Bodo/Glimt (6 last)

Molde1-4Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt0-1Molde
Molde1-2Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt4-1Molde
Molde2-2Bodo/Glimt
Molde1-2Bodo/Glimt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Molde 1562 · Bodo/Glimt 1589

	Molde	Draw	Bodo/Glimt
Our model	29%	21%	50%
Market	28%	22%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bodo/Glimt: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Molde	Bodo/Glimt
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 2	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	3.5 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X4.20

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.75 ★
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +4’	3.30	4.20	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +11’	3.28	4.75	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde 1–1–4 Bodo/Glimt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Molde	1-4 HT 0-2	Bodo/Glimt
04/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	0-1 HT 0-1	Molde
05/03/26 Norway Cup	Molde	1-2 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt
26/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	4-1 HT 2-1	Molde
21/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	2-2 HT 0-2	Bodo/Glimt
22/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Molde	1-2 HT 1-0	Bodo/Glimt

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	26	20	2	4	69	27	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	63	23	62
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	39	35	45
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	64	44	44
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	43	40	40
7	SK Brann	26	10	3	13	47	44	33
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	43	47	32
9	Sarpsborg	26	8	7	11	32	42	31
10	KFUM	26	8	7	11	33	46	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	38	53	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	31	46	30
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	31	39	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	30	51	26
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	45	60	24
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Molde	Bodo/Glimt
Sandefjord	5-5 D	3-2 W
SK Brann	2-3 L	1-2 L
Fredrikstad	5-1 W	2-1 W
Ham-Kam	5-1 W	2-0 W
Valerenga	4-3 W	0-1 L
Tromso	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Molde (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Molde

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	4-3	5-5	14	4	D
01/11	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-3	7	7	L
25/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
18/10	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	2-0	6-1	5	4	W
11/10	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
19/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
13/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	5-1	2	1	W
06/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	4-3	4-3	2	5	W
16/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	5	W

Bodo/Glimt

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
30/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	3-2	3-2	5	5	W
24/10	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
17/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
10/10	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
20/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
14/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	12	2	W
08/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bodo/Glimt win (50%). Probabilities: Molde 28%, draw 22%, Bodo/Glimt 50%.

How many goals are expected in Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Molde 1.77 · Bodo/Glimt 2.35), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.