Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 04/09, 20:45
Prediction: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
Team pages: Shelbourne · Drogheda United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Shelbourne1.86
Drogheda United1.04
1X2
Shelbourne
Draw
Drogheda United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Shelbourne
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Drogheda United
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shelbourne
1–3–2
Drogheda United
(6 last)
- Drogheda United2-2Shelbourne
- Shelbourne3-4Drogheda United
- Drogheda United1-2Shelbourne
- Drogheda United2-1Shelbourne
- Shelbourne0-0Drogheda United
- Drogheda United2-2Shelbourne
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shelbourne 1470 · Drogheda United 1486
| Shelbourne | Draw | Drogheda United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Drogheda United: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shelbourne | Drogheda United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.3 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shelbourne 1–3–2 Drogheda United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Shelbourne |
| 24/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Shelbourne | 3-4 HT 2-0 | Drogheda United |
| 27/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Shelbourne |
| 22/09/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Shelbourne |
| 19/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Shelbourne | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Drogheda United |
| 18/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Shelbourne |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 54 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 25 | 50 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 50 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 45 | 40 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 39 | 35 |
| 6 | Galway United | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 34 |
| 7 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 8 | Waterford FC | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 48 | 32 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 48 | 23 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shelbourne | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| St Patricks | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Dundalk | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Sligo Rovers | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Bohemians Dublin | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Shamrock Rovers | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Derry City | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Shelbourne (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shelbourne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 02/08 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 27/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 22/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 19/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
Drogheda United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 10/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shelbourne win (55%). Probabilities: Shelbourne 55%, draw 25%, Drogheda United 20%.
How many goals are expected in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Shelbourne 1.86 · Drogheda United 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.