Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 04/09, 20:45

Prediction: Waterford FC vs Derry City

Team pages: Waterford FC · Derry City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Waterford FC1.4

Derry City1.58

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Waterford FC Draw Derry City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Waterford FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWWDW

Derry City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWLDWL

Head-to-head

Waterford FC 2–1–3 Derry City (6 last)

Derry City2-4Waterford FC
Waterford FC2-2Derry City
Derry City4-2Waterford FC
Waterford FC1-2Derry City
Derry City7-2Waterford FC
Waterford FC2-1Derry City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Waterford FC 1569 · Derry City 1503

	Waterford FC	Draw	Derry City
Our model	33%	27%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Waterford FC (rating 1569 vs 1503).
H2H favours Derry City: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Waterford FC	Derry City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	1.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +26’	2.80	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Waterford FC 2–1–3 Derry City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	2-4 HT 0-1	Waterford FC
15/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Derry City
27/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	4-2 HT 0-1	Waterford FC
17/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Derry City
04/07/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	7-2 HT 4-0	Waterford FC
25/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Derry City

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	27	16	6	5	43	24	54
2	St Patricks	29	14	8	7	45	25	50
3	Bohemians Dublin	29	14	8	7	50	34	50
4	Dundalk	29	10	10	9	46	45	40
5	Shelbourne	27	8	11	8	37	39	35
6	Galway United	28	8	10	10	36	42	34
7	Derry City	28	7	12	9	38	37	33
8	Waterford FC	29	7	11	11	39	48	32
9	Drogheda United	29	6	10	13	33	48	28
10	Sligo Rovers	29	5	8	16	23	48	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Waterford FC	Derry City
St Patricks	2-0 W	1-1 D
Sligo Rovers	0-0 D	2-0 W
Bohemians Dublin	3-1 W	3-5 L
Shelbourne	1-0 W	0-0 D
Galway United	0-0 D	1-2 L
Dundalk	3-2 W	1-2 L
Shamrock Rovers	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Waterford FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Waterford FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	0	W
21/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
02/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
25/07	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
10/07	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
03/07	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	4-2	7	3	W
26/06	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
19/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
12/06	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	4-0	4	5	W

Derry City

DLWLDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	3-5	3	3	L
07/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
02/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
03/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-4	5	3	L
26/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
22/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
19/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
12/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	4-1	6	5	W
29/05	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
25/05	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Waterford FC vs Derry City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Derry City win (41%). Probabilities: Waterford FC 33%, draw 26%, Derry City 41%.

How many goals are expected in Waterford FC vs Derry City?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Waterford FC 1.4 · Derry City 1.58), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Waterford FC vs Derry City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.