Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 21/08, 21:00

Prediction: Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne

Team pages: Shamrock Rovers · Shelbourne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Shamrock Rovers1.8

Shelbourne1.13

1X2

51% 26% 22%

Shamrock Rovers Draw Shelbourne

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shamrock Rovers 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDWWL

Shelbourne 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Shamrock Rovers 2–2–2 Shelbourne (6 last)

Shelbourne2-1Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers3-2Shelbourne
Shelbourne2-2Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers0-1Shelbourne
Shelbourne1-2Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers2-2Shelbourne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shamrock Rovers 1558 · Shelbourne 1489

	Shamrock Rovers	Draw	Shelbourne
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	51%	27%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shamrock Rovers (rating 1558 vs 1489).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shamrock Rovers	Shelbourne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	1.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.82
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.24

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:55 +79’	1.80	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:13	1.82	3.67	4.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shamrock Rovers 2–2–2 Shelbourne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	2-1 HT 1-0	Shamrock Rovers
06/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	3-2 HT 2-1	Shelbourne
09/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	2-2 HT 2-2	Shamrock Rovers
10/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	0-1 HT 0-1	Shelbourne
13/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	1-2 HT 1-1	Shamrock Rovers
25/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	2-2 HT 1-0	Shelbourne

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	27	16	6	5	43	24	54
2	St Patricks	27	13	8	6	43	23	47
3	Bohemians Dublin	27	12	8	7	42	31	44
4	Dundalk	27	9	10	8	42	41	37
5	Shelbourne	26	8	10	8	36	38	34
6	Derry City	27	7	12	8	35	32	33
7	Galway United	26	7	9	10	33	40	30
8	Waterford FC	27	6	10	11	37	48	28
9	Drogheda United	27	6	10	11	31	43	28
10	Sligo Rovers	27	5	7	15	23	45	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shamrock Rovers	Shelbourne
Dundalk	3-2 W	2-1 W
Sligo Rovers	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shamrock Rovers (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shamrock Rovers

WLWDLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	FK Egnatia UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-4	1-5	8	7	L
07/08	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-2	3-2	1	8	W
04/08	FK Egnatia UEFA Europa League Qualifying	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
31/07	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
28/07	Ararat Armenia UEFA Champions League Qualifying	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
21/07	Ararat Armenia UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
17/07	Cork City Republic of Ireland FAI Cup	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
14/07	Floriana UEFA Champions League Qualifying	2-1	5-1	6	4	W
07/07	Floriana UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
03/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	3	6	W

Shelbourne

DWDDWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Ajax UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
09/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
06/08	Ajax UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	1-3	0	2	L
02/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
30/07	JK Nomme Kalju UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	2	7	L
23/07	JK Nomme Kalju UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-1	5-2	12	1	W
17/07	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup	0-0	2-2	7	9	D
07/07	Celtic Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
03/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-1	1	9	W
27/06	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-2	14	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shamrock Rovers win (51%). Probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51%, draw 26%, Shelbourne 22%.

How many goals are expected in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Shamrock Rovers 1.8 · Shelbourne 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.