Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs DC United

Team pages: FC Cincinnati · DC United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.1Total

FC Cincinnati2.73

DC United1.38

1X2

65% 19% 16%

FC Cincinnati Draw DC United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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DC United 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati 3–1–2 DC United (6 last)

FC Cincinnati1-2DC United
DC United0-1FC Cincinnati
DC United2-3FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati0-0DC United
DC United3-0FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2-1DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati 1543 · DC United 1464

	FC Cincinnati	Draw	DC United
Our model	65%	18%	17%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cincinnati (rating 1543 vs 1464).
H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati	DC United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.2	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	3.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.54 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.52
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +2’	1.45	4.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:56 +2’	1.54	4.52	5.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 3–1–2 DC United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-2 HT 1-2	DC United
13/04/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
04/07/24 USA MLS	DC United	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Cincinnati
10/03/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	0-0 HT 0-0	DC United
25/06/23 USA MLS	DC United	3-0 HT 3-0	FC Cincinnati
07/05/23 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-1 HT 0-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	21	10	4	7	33	26	34
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	21	7	6	8	35	30	27
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Atlanta United	21	6	3	12	25	36	21
13	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
14	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
15	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cincinnati

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W
24/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-1	6-2	6	5	W
17/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
14/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
10/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	4	5	D

DC United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
10/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (65%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 65%, draw 19%, DC United 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?

The model expects 4.1 goals (FC Cincinnati 2.73 · DC United 1.38), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.