Basketball · Argentina Liga Nacional · 16/11, 22:00
Prediction: Instituto vs San Lorenzo
Team pages: Instituto · San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Estimated points
152.1Total
Instituto81.7
San Lorenzo70.4
1X2
Instituto
San Lorenzo
Recent form · 10 last
Instituto
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Instituto
6–0
San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- San Lorenzo66-84Instituto
- San Lorenzo67-86Instituto
- Instituto89-86San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo72-87Instituto
- Instituto94-65San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo72-75Instituto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Instituto 1592 · San Lorenzo 1396
| Instituto | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 84% | 16% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
152.1 points · Bet365 line 153.5 · -1.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points152.1Instituto 81.7 · San Lorenzo 70.4
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Instituto (rating 1592 vs 1396).
- Instituto is a clear favourite (79% market).
- H2H favours Instituto: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Instituto | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 77.7 / 76.7 | 70.1 / 82.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 76.4 / 74.4 | 62.8 / 84.6 |
| Est. result | 82 | 70 |
Est. total152.1
Line O/U153.5
Diff.1.4
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Instituto 6–0–0 San Lorenzo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/26 Club Friendlies | San Lorenzo | 66-84 | Instituto |
| 21/02/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Lorenzo | 67-86 | Instituto |
| 18/10/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | Instituto | 89-86 | San Lorenzo |
| 08/04/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Lorenzo | 72-87 | Instituto |
| 11/11/24 Argentina Liga Nacional | Instituto | 94-65 | San Lorenzo |
| 02/04/24 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Lorenzo | 72-75 | Instituto |
Standings · Argentina Liga Nacional
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quimsa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 682 | 606 | 15 |
| 2 | Penarol | 8 | 7 | 1 | 657 | 598 | 15 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Comodoro | 12 | 9 | 3 | 926 | 888 | 21 |
| 4 | Instituto | 8 | 6 | 2 | 623 | 612 | 14 |
| 5 | Atenas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 591 | 553 | 12 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 8 | 5 | 3 | 716 | 666 | 13 |
| 7 | Independiente de Oliva | 4 | 2 | 2 | 398 | 356 | 6 |
| 8 | Olimpico | 8 | 4 | 4 | 694 | 683 | 12 |
| 9 | Argentino Junin | 8 | 4 | 4 | 623 | 636 | 12 |
| 10 | Obera TC | 7 | 3 | 4 | 560 | 582 | 10 |
| 11 | Platense | 8 | 3 | 5 | 615 | 629 | 11 |
| 12 | Lanus | 11 | 4 | 7 | 864 | 872 | 15 |
| 13 | La Union Formosa | 6 | 2 | 4 | 469 | 499 | 8 |
| 13 | Racing de Chivilcoy | 9 | 3 | 6 | 715 | 745 | 12 |
| 15 | Regatas | 7 | 2 | 5 | 513 | 530 | 9 |
| 16 | Ferrocarril Oeste | 8 | 2 | 6 | 652 | 685 | 10 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 8 | 2 | 6 | 561 | 666 | 10 |
| 18 | San Martin | 9 | 2 | 7 | 734 | 787 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Instituto | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Comodoro | 57-58 L | 89-73 W |
| Regatas | 63-73 L | 70-65 W |
| San Martin | 81-73 W | 42-75 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Instituto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Olimpico Argentina Liga Nacional |
83-82 | W |
| 09/11 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
92-88 | W |
| 04/11 | Racing de Chivilcoy Argentina Liga Nacional |
75-71 | W |
| 02/11 | Gimnasia Comodoro Argentina Liga Nacional |
57-58 | L |
| 22/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Nacional |
75-73 | W |
| 10/10 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
97-94 | W |
| 03/10 | Regatas Argentina Liga Nacional |
63-73 | L |
| 01/10 | San Martin Argentina Liga Nacional |
81-73 | W |
| 20/05 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
71-75 | L |
| 17/05 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
83-80 | W |
San Lorenzo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Independiente de Oliva Argentina Liga Nacional |
89-122 | L |
| 13/11 | Atenas Argentina Liga Nacional |
55-81 | L |
| 09/11 | San Martin Argentina Liga Nacional |
42-75 | L |
| 07/11 | Regatas Argentina Liga Nacional |
70-65 | W |
| 29/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Nacional |
58-80 | L |
| 18/10 | Obera TC Argentina Liga Nacional |
73-78 | L |
| 17/10 | Penarol Argentina Liga Nacional |
85-92 | L |
| 09/10 | Gimnasia Comodoro Argentina Liga Nacional |
89-73 | W |
| 18/04 | Obras Argentina Liga Nacional |
70-76 | L |
| 15/04 | Argentino Junin Argentina Liga Nacional |
70-80 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Instituto vs San Lorenzo?
Our model gives 79% to Instituto.
How many points are expected in Instituto vs San Lorenzo?
The model estimates 152.1 total points (Instituto 81.7 · San Lorenzo 70.4).