Basketball · Philippines UAAP Women · 04/11, 05:00
Prediction: UP Maroons (W) vs ADU Falcons (W)
Prediction summary
Estimated points
144.6Total
UP Maroons (W)74.8
ADU Falcons (W)69.8
1X2
UP Maroons (W)
ADU Falcons (W)
Recent form · 10 last
UP Maroons (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
ADU Falcons (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UP Maroons (W)
1–5
ADU Falcons (W)
(6 last)
- ADU Falcons (W)67-60UP Maroons (W)
- UP Maroons (W)65-69ADU Falcons (W)
- UP Maroons (W)66-63ADU Falcons (W)
- UP Maroons (W)54-57ADU Falcons (W)
- UP Maroons (W)56-60ADU Falcons (W)
- UP Maroons (W)50-83ADU Falcons (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UP Maroons (W) 1482 · ADU Falcons (W) 1523
| UP Maroons (W) | ADU Falcons (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
144.6 points · Bet365 line 133.5 · +11.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points144.6UP Maroons (W) 74.8 · ADU Falcons (W) 69.8
Match keys
- H2H favours ADU Falcons (W): 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| UP Maroons (W) | ADU Falcons (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 69 / 73.2 | 65.5 / 66.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 66.6 / 68 | 65.6 / 66.6 |
| Est. result | 75 | 70 |
Est. total144.6
Line O/U133.5
Diff.11.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · UP Maroons (W) 1–0–5 ADU Falcons (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/26 Philippines UAAP Women | ADU Falcons (W) | 67-60 | UP Maroons (W) |
| 16/11/25 Philippines UAAP Women | UP Maroons (W) | 65-69 | ADU Falcons (W) |
| 24/09/25 Philippines UAAP Women | UP Maroons (W) | 66-63 | ADU Falcons (W) |
| 27/10/24 Philippines UAAP Women | UP Maroons (W) | 54-57 | ADU Falcons (W) |
| 28/09/24 Philippines UAAP Women | UP Maroons (W) | 56-60 | ADU Falcons (W) |
| 20/10/19 Philippines UAAP Women | UP Maroons (W) | 50-83 | ADU Falcons (W) |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UP Maroons (W) | ADU Falcons (W) |
|---|---|---|
| UST Tigresses (W) | 65-93 L | 65-83 L |
| NU Lady Bulldogs (W) | 82-71 W | 51-71 L |
| UE Red Warriors (W) | 57-43 W | 67-50 W |
| DLSU Green Archers (W) | 63-58 W | 70-68 W |
| FEU Lady Tamaraws (W) | 67-74 L | 79-75 W |
| ADMU Eagles (W) | 89-82 W | 52-70 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UP Maroons (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | UST Tigresses (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
65-93 | L |
| 25/10 | UST Tigresses (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
66-75 | L |
| 21/10 | NU Lady Bulldogs (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
82-71 | W |
| 17/10 | UE Red Warriors (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
57-43 | W |
| 11/10 | DLSU Green Archers (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
63-58 | W |
| 07/10 | ADU Falcons (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
60-67 | L |
| 04/10 | FEU Lady Tamaraws (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
67-74 | L |
| 30/09 | ADMU Eagles (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
89-82 | W |
| 22/11 | DLSU Green Archers (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
73-75 | L |
| 19/11 | ADMU Eagles (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
68-94 | L |
ADU Falcons (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | ADMU Eagles (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
52-70 | L |
| 28/10 | FEU Lady Tamaraws (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
79-75 | W |
| 24/10 | FEU Lady Tamaraws (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
48-50 | L |
| 21/10 | ADMU Eagles (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
79-70 | W |
| 18/10 | DLSU Green Archers (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
70-68 | W |
| 11/10 | UE Red Warriors (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
67-50 | W |
| 07/10 | UP Maroons (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
67-60 | W |
| 03/10 | UST Tigresses (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
65-83 | L |
| 30/09 | NU Lady Bulldogs (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
51-71 | L |
| 23/11 | ADMU Eagles (W) Philippines UAAP Women |
77-71 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UP Maroons (W) vs ADU Falcons (W)?
Our model gives 64% to UP Maroons (W).
How many points are expected in UP Maroons (W) vs ADU Falcons (W)?
The model estimates 144.6 total points (UP Maroons (W) 74.8 · ADU Falcons (W) 69.8).