Basketball · France Nationale 1 · 13/10, 20:00

Prediction: Union Tarbes Lourdes vs Toulouse

Team pages: Union Tarbes Lourdes · Toulouse

Prediction summary

Estimated points

162.1Total

Union Tarbes Lourdes84.9

Toulouse77.2

1X2

71% 29%

Union Tarbes Lourdes Toulouse

Recent form · 10 last

Union Tarbes Lourdes 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Toulouse 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Union Tarbes Lourdes 6–0 Toulouse (6 last)

Union Tarbes Lourdes74-68Toulouse
Toulouse92-95Union Tarbes Lourdes
Toulouse59-79Union Tarbes Lourdes
Union Tarbes Lourdes80-75Toulouse
Toulouse85-99Union Tarbes Lourdes
Toulouse79-86Union Tarbes Lourdes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Tarbes Lourdes 1536 · Toulouse 1455

	Union Tarbes Lourdes	Toulouse
Our model	73%	27%
Market	71%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 162.1 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points162.1Union Tarbes Lourdes 84.9 · Toulouse 77.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Tarbes Lourdes (rating 1536 vs 1455).
Union Tarbes Lourdes is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Union Tarbes Lourdes: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Union Tarbes Lourdes	Toulouse
Points F\|A (Last 10)	78.9 / 76.4	83 / 85.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	80.2 / 76.8	81.6 / 86.8
Est. result	85	77

Est. total162.1

Line O/U159.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.31

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.83

2 (+7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 159.51.83

Under 159.51.83

Diff.: 2.2 · Est. total: 161.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.31 → 1.31	Bet365 1.31
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 10.9%

Time*	1	2
15:36 +10’	1.31	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
07:29 +257’	1.30	2.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Tarbes Lourdes 6–0–0 Toulouse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/12/25 France Nationale 1	Union Tarbes Lourdes	74-68	Toulouse
30/09/25 France Nationale 1	Toulouse	92-95	Union Tarbes Lourdes
12/09/25 Coupe De France	Toulouse	59-79	Union Tarbes Lourdes
04/02/25 France Nationale 1	Union Tarbes Lourdes	80-75	Toulouse
05/11/24 France Nationale 1	Toulouse	85-99	Union Tarbes Lourdes
06/02/24 France Nationale 1	Toulouse	79-86	Union Tarbes Lourdes

Standings · France Nationale 1 · Nationale 1 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CEP Lorient	5	3	2	370	360	8
2	Union Tarbes Lourdes	4	3	1	331	307	7
3	Angers BC	4	3	1	282	274	7
4	Pays de Fougères Basket	4	3	1	279	272	7
5	JSA Bordeaux	5	2	3	373	370	7
6	Union Tours Basket Metropole	5	2	3	389	392	7
7	Vendee Challans Basket	3	3	0	256	226	6
8	Union Rennes Basket 35	4	2	2	350	341	6
9	Vitre Aurore	3	2	1	208	208	5
10	C’Chartres Basket M	4	1	3	325	337	5
11	Les Sables Vendee	4	1	3	297	316	5
12	Toulouse	3	1	2	253	261	4
13	US Laval	4	0	4	281	330	4
14	Pole France	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Tarbes Lourdes	Toulouse
Le Havre	80-68 W	80-82 L
Orchies	95-89 W	71-85 L
Boulogne Sur Mer	76-75 W	84-88 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Tarbes Lourdes (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Tarbes Lourdes

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	C’Chartres Basket M France Nationale 1	80-74	W
02/10	Pays de Fougères Basket France Nationale 1	96-79	W
25/09	Vitre Aurore France Nationale 1	66-69	L
18/09	JSA Bordeaux France Nationale 1	89-85	W
24/05	Levallois Basketball France Nationale 1	70-77	L
22/05	Levallois Basketball France Nationale 1	73-65	W
15/05	Levallois Basketball France Nationale 1	64-83	L
08/05	Le Havre France Nationale 1	80-68	W
05/05	Orchies France Nationale 1	95-89	W
30/04	Boulogne Sur Mer France Nationale 1	76-75	W

Toulouse

WLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Angers BC France Nationale 1	89-90	L
02/10	Union Tours Basket Metropole France Nationale 1	77-86	L
25/09	Union Rennes Basket 35 France Nationale 1	87-85	W
08/05	Orchies France Nationale 1	71-85	L
05/05	Boulogne Sur Mer France Nationale 1	84-88	L
01/05	Loon Plage France Nationale 1	91-96	L
26/04	Fos-sur-Mer France Nationale 1	90-70	W
21/04	Le Havre France Nationale 1	80-82	L
17/04	Berck/Rang du Fliers France Nationale 1	79-88	L
08/04	Mulhouse France Nationale 1	82-81	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Tarbes Lourdes vs Toulouse?

Our model gives 71% to Union Tarbes Lourdes.

How many points are expected in Union Tarbes Lourdes vs Toulouse?

The model estimates 162.1 total points (Union Tarbes Lourdes 84.9 · Toulouse 77.2).