Basketball · Taiwan TPBL · 24/10, 08:30

Prediction: Hsinchu Lioneers vs Formosa Dreamers

Team pages: Formosa Dreamers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

187.9Total

Hsinchu Lioneers94.1

Formosa Dreamers93.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Hsinchu Lioneers Formosa Dreamers

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Hsinchu Lioneers 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWLLL

Formosa Dreamers 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Hsinchu Lioneers 1–5 Formosa Dreamers (6 last)

Hsinchu Lioneers93-104Formosa Dreamers
Hsinchu Lioneers106-114Formosa Dreamers
Formosa Dreamers83-61Hsinchu Lioneers
Formosa Dreamers94-97Hsinchu Lioneers
Formosa Dreamers92-86Hsinchu Lioneers
Hsinchu Lioneers85-94Formosa Dreamers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hsinchu Lioneers 1468 · Formosa Dreamers 1540

	Hsinchu Lioneers	Formosa Dreamers
Our model	53%	47%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 187.9 points · Bet365 line 195.5 · -7.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points187.9Hsinchu Lioneers 94.1 · Formosa Dreamers 93.8

Match keys

H2H favours Formosa Dreamers: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Hsinchu Lioneers	Formosa Dreamers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.8 / 91.7	97.7 / 94.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	91.8 / 98.8	101.4 / 92.4
Est. result	94	94

Est. total187.9

Line O/U195.5

Diff.7.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.83

2 (+1)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 195.51.83

Under 195.51.83

Diff.: 7.35 · Est. total: 188.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 2.09 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
15:40 +11’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:43 +7’	1.76	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hsinchu Lioneers 1–0–5 Formosa Dreamers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Taiwan TPBL	Hsinchu Lioneers	93-104	Formosa Dreamers
14/05/26 Taiwan TPBL	Hsinchu Lioneers	106-114	Formosa Dreamers
12/05/26 Taiwan TPBL	Formosa Dreamers	83-61	Hsinchu Lioneers
09/05/26 Taiwan TPBL	Formosa Dreamers	94-97	Hsinchu Lioneers
19/04/26 Taiwan TPBL	Formosa Dreamers	92-86	Hsinchu Lioneers
12/04/26 Taiwan TPBL	Hsinchu Lioneers	85-94	Formosa Dreamers

Standings · Taiwan TPBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Formosa Dreamers	2	1	1	221	227
2	New Taipei Kings	1	1	0	113	106
3	Kaohsiung Aquas	1	0	1	114	115
4	Hsinchu Lioneers	0	0	0	0	0
4	New Taipei CTBC DEA	0	0	0	0	0
4	Taipei Taishin Mars	0	0	0	0	0
4	Taiwan Beer Leopards	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hsinchu Lioneers	Formosa Dreamers
Kaohsiung Aquas	102-99 W	115-114 W
New Taipei Kings	98-78 W	106-113 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hsinchu Lioneers (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hsinchu Lioneers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/05	Formosa Dreamers Taiwan TPBL	93-104	L
14/05	Formosa Dreamers Taiwan TPBL	106-114	L
12/05	Formosa Dreamers Taiwan TPBL	61-83	L
09/05	Formosa Dreamers Taiwan TPBL	97-94	W
03/05	Kaohsiung Aquas Taiwan TPBL	102-99	W
02/05	Taipei Taishin Mars Taiwan TPBL	96-73	W
29/04	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	98-78	W
25/04	Taipei Taishin Mars Taiwan TPBL	104-86	W
19/04	Formosa Dreamers Taiwan TPBL	86-92	L
12/04	Formosa Dreamers Taiwan TPBL	85-94	L

Formosa Dreamers

WLWLLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Kaohsiung Aquas Taiwan TPBL	115-114	W
17/10	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	106-113	L
06/06	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	90-78	W
04/06	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	91-88	W
02/06	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	105-69	W
31/05	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	93-96	L
29/05	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	84-109	L
26/05	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	99-90	W
24/05	New Taipei Kings Taiwan TPBL	90-91	L
16/05	Hsinchu Lioneers Taiwan TPBL	104-93	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hsinchu Lioneers vs Formosa Dreamers?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Hsinchu Lioneers 51% · Formosa Dreamers 49%).

How many points are expected in Hsinchu Lioneers vs Formosa Dreamers?

The model estimates 187.9 total points (Hsinchu Lioneers 94.1 · Formosa Dreamers 93.8).