Basketball · Mexico LNBP · 12/10, 01:00

Prediction: Lobos Puebla vs Freseros Irapuato

Team pages: Lobos Puebla · Freseros Irapuato

Prediction summary
Estimated points
171Total
Lobos Puebla91.6
Freseros Irapuato79.4
1X2
81% 19%
Lobos Puebla Freseros Irapuato
Recent form · 10 last
Lobos Puebla 8-0-2 (W-D-L)
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Freseros Irapuato 1-0-9 (W-D-L)
LLLWLLLLLL
Head-to-head
Lobos Puebla 1–3 Freseros Irapuato (4 last)
  • Lobos Puebla86-90Freseros Irapuato
  • Lobos Puebla71-82Freseros Irapuato
  • Lobos Puebla100-91Freseros Irapuato
  • Lobos Puebla92-94Freseros Irapuato
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lobos Puebla 1554 · Freseros Irapuato 1411
Lobos PueblaFreseros Irapuato
Our model79%21%
Market81%19%
Estimated total (ours) 171 points · Bet365 line 171.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
Estimated points171Lobos Puebla 91.6 · Freseros Irapuato 79.4

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lobos Puebla (rating 1554 vs 1411).
  • Lobos Puebla is a clear favourite (81% market).
  • H2H favours Freseros Irapuato: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

Lobos PueblaFreseros Irapuato
Points F|A (Last 10)88.2 / 7981 / 96.2
Points F|A (Last 5)85.2 / 79.683.6 / 102.2
Est. result9279
Est. total171
Line O/U171.5
Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lobos Puebla 1–0–3 Freseros Irapuato

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DateHomeScoreAway
12/09/26
Mexico LNBP
Lobos Puebla86-90Freseros Irapuato
11/09/26
Mexico LNBP
Lobos Puebla71-82Freseros Irapuato
05/08/24
Mexico LNBP
Lobos Puebla100-91Freseros Irapuato
04/08/24
Mexico LNBP
Lobos Puebla92-94Freseros Irapuato

Standings · Mexico LNBP · LNBP 2026, West

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#Team PWL GFGAPts
1 Soles Mexicali 28217 2382209049
2 Astros de Jalisco 28208 2473224648
3 Lobos Puebla 281810 2366225146
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 281513 2411237143
5 Diablos Rojos 281117 2294237039
6 Gambusinos de Fresnillo 281117 2233232739
7 El Calor de Cancun 28919 2276238437

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLobos PueblaFreseros Irapuato
Santos San Luis 99-84 W 87-108 L
Abejas 80-67 W 89-83 W
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 0 L 1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lobos Puebla (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lobos Puebla

WWWWWLWWLW

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Date Opponent FT Res.
08/10 El Calor de Cancun
Mexico LNBP
90-77 W
07/10 El Calor de Cancun
Mexico LNBP
68-77 L
03/10 Correcaminos
Mexico LNBP
90-85 W
02/10 Correcaminos
Mexico LNBP
97-75 W
28/09 Mineros de Zacatecas
Mexico LNBP
81-84 L
27/09 Mineros de Zacatecas
Mexico LNBP
91-68 W
22/09 Santos San Luis
Mexico LNBP
99-84 W
21/09 Santos San Luis
Mexico LNBP
95-86 W
17/09 Abejas
Mexico LNBP
80-67 W
16/09 Abejas
Mexico LNBP
91-87 W

Freseros Irapuato

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Date Opponent FT Res.
08/10 Dorados de Chihuahua
Mexico LNBP
77-105 L
07/10 Dorados de Chihuahua
Mexico LNBP
85-105 L
03/10 Santos San Luis
Mexico LNBP
87-108 L
02/10 Santos San Luis
Mexico LNBP
81-96 L
27/09 Panteras Aguascalientes
Mexico LNBP
88-97 L
26/09 Panteras Aguascalientes
Mexico LNBP
87-94 L
22/09 Abejas
Mexico LNBP
89-83 W
21/09 Abejas
Mexico LNBP
80-97 L
16/09 Soles Mexicali
Mexico LNBP
63-92 L
15/09 Soles Mexicali
Mexico LNBP
73-85 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lobos Puebla vs Freseros Irapuato?

Our model gives 81% to Lobos Puebla.

How many points are expected in Lobos Puebla vs Freseros Irapuato?

The model estimates 171 total points (Lobos Puebla 91.6 · Freseros Irapuato 79.4).