Basketball · China CBA · 25/10, 12:35

Prediction: Shanxi Loongs vs Jiangsu Dragons

Team pages: Shanxi Loongs · Jiangsu Dragons

Prediction summary

Estimated points

180.7Total

Shanxi Loongs98.6

Jiangsu Dragons82.1

1X2

88% 12%

Shanxi Loongs Jiangsu Dragons

Recent form · 10 last

Shanxi Loongs 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLLLWW

Jiangsu Dragons 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Shanxi Loongs 5–1 Jiangsu Dragons (6 last)

Jiangsu Dragons87-86Shanxi Loongs
Shanxi Loongs91-77Jiangsu Dragons
Shanxi Loongs93-83Jiangsu Dragons
Jiangsu Dragons92-113Shanxi Loongs
Shanxi Loongs77-56Jiangsu Dragons
Jiangsu Dragons86-107Shanxi Loongs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shanxi Loongs 1580 · Jiangsu Dragons 1445

	Shanxi Loongs	Jiangsu Dragons
Our model	79%	21%
Market	90%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 180.7 points · Bet365 line 182.5 · -1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points180.7Shanxi Loongs 98.6 · Jiangsu Dragons 82.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Loongs (rating 1580 vs 1445).
Shanxi Loongs is a clear favourite (88% market).
H2H favours Shanxi Loongs: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Shanxi Loongs	Jiangsu Dragons
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.4 / 91.9	83.3 / 89.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	92.6 / 91.4	87.6 / 92.8
Est. result	99	82

Est. total180.7

Line O/U182.5

Diff.1.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.03

29.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-16.5)1.83

2 (+16.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 182.51.83

Under 182.51.83

Diff.: 1.9 · Est. total: 180.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
2	9.75 → 9.75	Bet365 9.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
13:51 +26’	1.03	9.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanxi Loongs 5–0–1 Jiangsu Dragons

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 China CBA	Jiangsu Dragons	87-86	Shanxi Loongs
04/01/26 China CBA	Shanxi Loongs	91-77	Jiangsu Dragons
10/03/25 China CBA	Shanxi Loongs	93-83	Jiangsu Dragons
25/01/25 China CBA	Jiangsu Dragons	92-113	Shanxi Loongs
03/08/24 China CBA Summer League	Shanxi Loongs	77-56	Jiangsu Dragons
29/02/24 China CBA	Jiangsu Dragons	86-107	Shanxi Loongs

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	3	3	0	300	222
2	Liaoning Flying Leopards	3	3	0	296	270
3	Zhejiang Lions	3	2	1	292	299
4	Shanxi Loongs	3	2	1	315	280
5	Shanghai Sharks	3	2	1	299	263
6	Guangzhou Long-Lions	3	2	1	290	262
7	Fujian Sturgeons	3	2	1	278	260
8	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	3	2	1	256	245
9	Beijing Royal Fighters	3	2	1	280	258
10	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	3	2	1	272	261
11	Sichuan Blue Whales	3	2	1	281	277
12	Nanjing Monkey King	3	1	2	274	315
13	Shandong Hi-Speed	3	1	2	265	281
14	Guangdong Southern Tigers	3	1	2	269	270
15	Jilin Northeast Tigers	3	1	2	259	258
16	Tianjin Pioneers	3	1	2	279	290
17	Shenzhen Leopards	3	1	2	219	303
18	Qingdao Eagles	3	0	3	253	267
19	Jiangsu Dragons	3	0	3	248	271
20	Ningbo Rockets	3	0	3	220	293

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shanxi Loongs

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	103-92	W
20/10	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	103-73	W
17/10	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	109-115	L
13/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	67-91	L
10/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	81-86	L
07/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	92-90	W
02/05	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	97-94	W
29/04	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	90-86	W
24/04	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	116-96	W
20/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	106-96	W

Jiangsu Dragons

LLLLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Beijing Royal Fighters China CBA	82-93	L
19/10	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	81-89	L
17/10	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	85-89	L
24/04	Liaoning Flying Leopards China CBA	89-108	L
20/04	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	101-85	W
18/04	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	87-86	W
16/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	76-84	L
13/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	67-80	L
11/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	88-93	L
09/04	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	77-89	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shanxi Loongs vs Jiangsu Dragons?

Our model gives 88% to Shanxi Loongs.

How many points are expected in Shanxi Loongs vs Jiangsu Dragons?

The model estimates 180.7 total points (Shanxi Loongs 98.6 · Jiangsu Dragons 82.1).