Basketball · China CBA · 25/10, 12:35

Prediction: Beijing Ducks vs Guangzhou Long-Lions

Team pages: Beijing Ducks · Guangzhou Long-Lions

Prediction summary

Estimated points

176.7Total

Beijing Ducks96.6

Guangzhou Long-Lions80.1

1X2

88% 12%

Beijing Ducks Guangzhou Long-Lions

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Ducks 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Guangzhou Long-Lions 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Beijing Ducks 6–0 Guangzhou Long-Lions (6 last)

Guangzhou Long-Lions94-103Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks97-89Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions85-98Beijing Ducks
Guangzhou Long-Lions82-101Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks105-90Guangzhou Long-Lions
Beijing Ducks82-61Guangzhou Long-Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Ducks 1643 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1487

	Beijing Ducks	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Our model	80%	20%
Market	90%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 176.7 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · -3.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points176.7Beijing Ducks 96.6 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 80.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Ducks (rating 1643 vs 1487).
Beijing Ducks is a clear favourite (88% market).
H2H favours Beijing Ducks: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Beijing Ducks	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.1 / 84.6	89.6 / 87.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90.2 / 80.4	86.8 / 87.4
Est. result	97	80

Est. total176.7

Line O/U180.5

Diff.3.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.03

29.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-16.5)1.83

2 (+16.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.83

Under 180.51.83

Diff.: 3.8 · Est. total: 176.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Pinn 1.04 ★
2	9.75 → 9.75	Bet365 9.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	2
15:00 +12’	1.03	9.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:12 +1’	1.05	8.12
15:41 +36’	1.05▲	8.05▼
16:22 +52’	1.04▼	8.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Ducks 6–0–0 Guangzhou Long-Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	94-103	Beijing Ducks
03/04/26 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	97-89	Guangzhou Long-Lions
14/03/26 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	85-98	Beijing Ducks
02/12/24 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	82-101	Beijing Ducks
20/10/24 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	105-90	Guangzhou Long-Lions
05/10/24 Club Friendlies	Beijing Ducks	82-61	Guangzhou Long-Lions

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	3	3	0	300	222
2	Liaoning Flying Leopards	3	3	0	296	270
3	Zhejiang Lions	3	2	1	292	299
4	Shanxi Loongs	3	2	1	315	280
5	Shanghai Sharks	3	2	1	299	263
6	Guangzhou Long-Lions	3	2	1	290	262
7	Fujian Sturgeons	3	2	1	278	260
8	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	3	2	1	256	245
9	Beijing Royal Fighters	3	2	1	280	258
10	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	3	2	1	272	261
11	Sichuan Blue Whales	3	2	1	281	277
12	Nanjing Monkey King	3	1	2	274	315
13	Shandong Hi-Speed	3	1	2	265	281
14	Guangdong Southern Tigers	3	1	2	269	270
15	Jilin Northeast Tigers	3	1	2	259	258
16	Tianjin Pioneers	3	1	2	279	290
17	Shenzhen Leopards	3	1	2	219	303
18	Qingdao Eagles	3	0	3	253	267
19	Jiangsu Dragons	3	0	3	248	271
20	Ningbo Rockets	3	0	3	220	293

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beijing Ducks	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Shenzhen Leopards	120-62 W	86-99 L
Guangdong Southern Tigers	96-78 W	80-90 L
Jilin Northeast Tigers	84-82 W	93-75 W
Shanghai Sharks	85-99 L	89-90 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beijing Ducks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/10	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	120-62	W
20/10	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	96-78	W
18/10	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	84-82	W
22/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	85-99	L
20/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	66-81	L
17/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	99-88	W
15/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	82-87	L
12/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	88-73	W
09/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	99-102	L
06/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	102-94	W

Guangzhou Long-Lions

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Tianjin Pioneers China CBA	86-102	L
20/10	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	114-81	W
18/10	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	90-79	W
03/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	80-90	L
01/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	64-85	L
28/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	93-76	W
24/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	86-99	L
20/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	101-94	W
18/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	93-75	W
15/04	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	89-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Ducks vs Guangzhou Long-Lions?

Our model gives 88% to Beijing Ducks.

How many points are expected in Beijing Ducks vs Guangzhou Long-Lions?

The model estimates 176.7 total points (Beijing Ducks 96.6 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 80.1).