Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 13/11, 18:00

Prediction: Ogre vs Keila

Team pages: Ogre · Keila

Prediction summary

Estimated points

170.9Total

Ogre90.8

Keila80

1X2

78% 22%

Ogre Keila

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLWW

Keila 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Ogre 5–1 Keila (6 last)

Ogre112-99Keila
Keila74-90Ogre
Ogre99-91Keila
Keila83-96Ogre
Ogre89-65Keila
Keila80-71Ogre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre 1469 · Keila 1449

	Ogre	Keila
Our model	65%	35%
Market	81%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 170.9 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · +3.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points170.9Ogre 90.8 · Keila 80

Match keys

Ogre is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Ogre: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ogre	Keila
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.3 / 90.1	72.8 / 83.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87 / 81.6	73.2 / 76
Est. result	91	80

Est. total170.9

Line O/U167.5

Diff.3.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.14

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-11.5)1.83

2 (+11.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 167.51.87

Under 167.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · Est. total: 167.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.14▲	Bet365 1.14
2	5.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.39 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	2
12:16 +31’	1.13	5.50
13:50 +57’	1.14▲	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:50 +1’	1.10	5.38
18:43 +4’	1.10▼	5.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre 5–0–1 Keila

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ogre	112-99	Keila
25/10/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Keila	74-90	Ogre
08/01/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ogre	99-91	Keila
12/10/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Keila	83-96	Ogre
02/03/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ogre	89-65	Keila
18/10/23 Latvia-Estonia BL	Keila	80-71	Ogre

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rigas Zelli	8	8	0	750	595	16
2	VEF Riga	9	7	2	806	675	16
3	Valmiera	9	7	2	809	692	16
4	Ventspils	9	6	3	776	738	15
5	Tartu Ulikool	8	5	3	662	611	13
6	TALTECH	10	6	4	737	738	16
7	Parnu	7	4	3	552	547	11
8	Ogre	8	4	4	699	691	12
9	Kalev/Cramo	8	4	4	677	661	12
10	Liepajas Lauvas	9	4	5	752	684	13
11	Keila	9	4	5	654	735	13
12	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	8	3	5	640	708	11
13	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	10	2	8	745	862	12
14	Latvijas Universitate	9	1	8	692	827	10
15	Keila Basket	9	0	9	633	820	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre	Keila
Keila Basket	101-77 W	81-60 W
TALTECH	78-82 L	58-79 L
KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	76-69 W	78-72 W
Rigas Zelli	85-110 L	70-103 L
VEF Riga	73-92 L	60-90 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ogre (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre

LLLLWWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	92-88	W
31/10	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	101-77	W
24/10	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	88-92	L
21/10	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	78-82	L
16/10	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	76-69	W
10/10	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	106-81	W
03/10	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	85-110	L
26/09	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	73-92	L
14/03	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	101-106	L
10/03	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	93-104	L

Keila

LLLWLWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/11	Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL	79-66	W
31/10	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	58-79	L
27/10	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	78-72	W
24/10	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	70-103	L
20/10	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	81-60	W
17/10	Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL	71-89	L
10/10	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	75-70	W
03/10	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	82-106	L
29/09	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	60-90	L
14/03	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	74-96	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre vs Keila?

Our model gives 78% to Ogre.

How many points are expected in Ogre vs Keila?

The model estimates 170.9 total points (Ogre 90.8 · Keila 80).