Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Valmiera vs Liepajas Lauvas

Team pages: Valmiera · Liepajas Lauvas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

166.3Total

Valmiera88.1

Liepajas Lauvas78.2

1X2

76% 24%

Valmiera Liepajas Lauvas

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Liepajas Lauvas 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valmiera 5–1 Liepajas Lauvas (6 last)

Valmiera95-81Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas78-83Valmiera
Valmiera87-84Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas86-92Valmiera
Valmiera84-73Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas76-63Valmiera

Model analysis

Estimated points166.3Valmiera 88.1 · Liepajas Lauvas 78.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera (rating 1579 vs 1471).
Valmiera is a clear favourite (76% market).
H2H favours Valmiera: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Valmiera	Liepajas Lauvas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.9 / 78.7	82.6 / 77
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85.6 / 81	88.6 / 70.2
Est. result	88	78

Est. total166.3

Line O/U165

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 1651.85

Under 1651.89

Diff.: 0.4 · Est. total: 164.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:53

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Pinn 1.18
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	2
18:45 +9’	1.18	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera 5–0–1 Liepajas Lauvas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	Valmiera	95-81	Liepajas Lauvas
29/10/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	78-83	Valmiera
11/04/25 Latvia LBL	Valmiera	87-84	Liepajas Lauvas
08/04/25 Latvia LBL	Liepajas Lauvas	86-92	Valmiera
05/04/25 Latvia LBL	Valmiera	84-73	Liepajas Lauvas
28/12/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	76-63	Valmiera

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rigas Zelli	8	8	0	750	595	16
2	VEF Riga	9	7	2	806	675	16
3	Valmiera	9	7	2	809	692	16
4	Ventspils	9	6	3	776	738	15
5	Tartu Ulikool	8	5	3	662	611	13
6	TALTECH	10	6	4	737	738	16
7	Parnu	7	4	3	552	547	11
8	Ogre	8	4	4	699	691	12
9	Kalev/Cramo	8	4	4	677	661	12
10	Liepajas Lauvas	9	4	5	752	684	13
11	Keila	9	4	5	654	735	13
12	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	8	3	5	640	708	11
13	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	10	2	8	745	862	12
14	Latvijas Universitate	9	1	8	692	827	10
15	Keila Basket	9	0	9	633	820	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera	Liepajas Lauvas
Parnu	74-76 L	73-76 L
VEF Riga	89-97 L	55-82 L
KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	91-87 W	112-54 W
Keila Basket	95-56 W	92-65 W
Rigas Ekselences Juniori	82-73 W	99-69 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valmiera

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL	93-86	W
01/11	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	74-76	L
24/10	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	89-97	L
17/10	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	81-59	W
11/10	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	91-87	W
03/10	Keila Latvia-Estonia BL	106-82	W
29/09	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	95-56	W
25/09	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	98-76	W
22/09	Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL	82-73	W
08/04	Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL	100-95	W

Liepajas Lauvas

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL	99-69	W
04/11	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	92-65	W
31/10	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	112-54	W
17/10	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	69-85	L
14/10	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	71-78	L
11/10	Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL	98-88	W
03/10	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	55-82	L
30/09	BC Tartu Latvia-Estonia BL	83-87	L
26/09	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	73-76	L
14/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	74-86	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera vs Liepajas Lauvas?

Our model gives 76% to Valmiera.

How many points are expected in Valmiera vs Liepajas Lauvas?

The model estimates 166.3 total points (Valmiera 88.1 · Liepajas Lauvas 78.2).