Basketball · Brazil NBB · 22/10, 00:30

Prediction: Bauru vs Sao Jose

Team pages: Bauru · Sao Jose

Prediction summary

Estimated points

164.4Total

Bauru87.4

Sao Jose77

1X2

77% 23%

Bauru Sao Jose

Recent form · 10 last

Bauru 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWLW

Sao Jose 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Bauru 3–3 Sao Jose (6 last)

Bauru85-81Sao Jose
Sao Jose71-96Bauru
Bauru84-91Sao Jose
Sao Jose68-57Bauru
Sao Jose88-65Bauru
Bauru84-77Sao Jose

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bauru 1503 · Sao Jose 1421

	Bauru	Sao Jose
Our model	73%	27%
Market	78%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 164.4 points · Bet365 line 152.5 · +11.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points164.4Bauru 87.4 · Sao Jose 77

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bauru (rating 1503 vs 1421).
Bauru is a clear favourite (77% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bauru	Sao Jose
Points F\|A (Last 10)	77.7 / 83.9	75.7 / 82.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	77.8 / 80.4	72.4 / 84.4
Est. result	87	77

Est. total164.4

Line O/U152.5

Diff.11.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.83

2 (+7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 152.51.83

Under 152.51.83

Diff.: 7.2 · Est. total: 159.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.30 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	2
18:19 +27’	1.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:16 +30’	1.30	3.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bauru 3–0–3 Sao Jose

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Brazil FPB	Bauru	85-81	Sao Jose
11/03/26 Brazil NBB	Sao Jose	71-96	Bauru
03/12/25 Brazil NBB	Bauru	84-91	Sao Jose
26/09/25 Brazil FPB	Sao Jose	68-57	Bauru
25/09/25 Brazil FPB	Sao Jose	88-65	Bauru
21/09/25 Brazil FPB	Bauru	84-77	Sao Jose

Standings · Brazil NBB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Unifacisa	2	2	0	177	135
2	Franca	1	1	0	90	59
3	Mogi das Cruzes	1	1	0	84	73
4	Uniao Corinthians	1	1	0	83	74
5	Bauru	1	1	0	82	81
6	Cruzeiro	2	1	1	146	144
7	Botafogo	0	0	0	0	0
7	Brasilia	0	0	0	0	0
7	Paulistano	0	0	0	0	0
7	Fortaleza BC	0	0	0	0	0
7	Minas	0	0	0	0	0
7	Pato Basquete	0	0	0	0	0
13	Flamengo	1	0	1	81	82
14	Corinthians	1	0	1	73	84
15	Caxias Do Sul	1	0	1	61	72
16	Pinheiros	1	0	1	65	81
17	Osasco	1	0	1	70	96
18	Sao Jose	1	0	1	59	90

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bauru	Sao Jose
Brasilia	65-94 L	78-90 L
Rio Claro	63-95 L	82-76 W
Franca	87-91 L	59-90 L
Mogi das Cruzes	79-87 L	70-81 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bauru

WLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Flamengo Brazil NBB	82-81	W
30/04	Paulistano Brazil NBB	62-71	L
26/04	Paulistano Brazil NBB	88-75	W
25/04	Paulistano Brazil NBB	80-95	L
22/04	Paulistano Brazil NBB	77-80	L
18/04	Brasilia Brazil NBB	65-94	L
16/04	Rio Claro Brazil NBB	63-95	L
07/04	Franca Brazil NBB	87-91	L
02/04	Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB	79-87	L
24/03	Pato Basquete Brazil NBB	94-70	W

Sao Jose

WLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Franca Brazil NBB	59-90	L
28/04	Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB	70-81	L
25/04	Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB	75-79	L
23/04	Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB	70-75	L
18/04	Uniao Corinthians Brazil NBB	88-97	L
16/04	Caxias Do Sul Brazil NBB	68-65	W
11/04	Pinheiros Brazil NBB	76-75	W
08/04	Brasilia Brazil NBB	78-90	L
02/04	Franca Brazil NBB	91-93	L
23/03	Rio Claro Brazil NBB	82-76	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bauru vs Sao Jose?

Our model gives 77% to Bauru.

How many points are expected in Bauru vs Sao Jose?

The model estimates 164.4 total points (Bauru 87.4 · Sao Jose 77).