Basketball · Adriatic League · 05/11, 18:00
Prediction: Spartak vs Zadar
Prediction summary
Estimated points
153.8Total
Spartak79.4
Zadar74.4
1X2
Spartak
Zadar
Recent form · 10 last
Spartak
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Zadar
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spartak
4–1
Zadar
(5 last)
- Spartak86-68Zadar
- Spartak76-75Zadar
- Zadar70-85Spartak
- Spartak87-71Zadar
- Zadar76-66Spartak
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spartak 1526 · Zadar 1577
| Spartak | Zadar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
153.8 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · -5.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points153.8Spartak 79.4 · Zadar 74.4
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zadar (rating 1526 vs 1577).
- H2H favours Spartak: 4-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Spartak | Zadar | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.6 / 85.1 | 73.9 / 74.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 87.8 / 86.4 | 78.8 / 78 |
| Est. result | 79 | 74 |
Est. total153.8
Line O/U159.5
Diff.5.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak 4–0–1 Zadar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 Adriatic League | Spartak | 86-68 | Zadar |
| 29/12/25 Adriatic League | Spartak | 76-75 | Zadar |
| 25/10/25 Adriatic League | Zadar | 70-85 | Spartak |
| 28/04/25 Adriatic League | Spartak | 87-71 | Zadar |
| 27/12/24 Adriatic League | Zadar | 76-66 | Spartak |
Standings · Adriatic League · ABA Liga 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partizan | 5 | 5 | 0 | 450 | 378 | 10 |
| 2 | BC Dubai | 5 | 5 | 0 | 467 | 403 | 10 |
| 3 | Bosna | 5 | 3 | 2 | 450 | 433 | 8 |
| 4 | Spartak | 5 | 3 | 2 | 439 | 432 | 8 |
| 5 | Zadar | 5 | 2 | 3 | 394 | 390 | 7 |
| 6 | U - Banca Transilvania Cluj | 5 | 2 | 3 | 432 | 440 | 7 |
| 7 | Ilirija | 5 | 2 | 3 | 396 | 406 | 7 |
| 8 | Mega Leks | 5 | 2 | 3 | 407 | 458 | 7 |
| 9 | BC GGMT Vienna | 5 | 1 | 4 | 409 | 439 | 6 |
| 10 | Studentski Centar | 5 | 0 | 5 | 406 | 471 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spartak | Zadar |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Leks | 109-104 W | 82-88 L |
| Ilirija | 82-76 W | 95-70 W |
| BC Dubai | 84-88 L | 75-89 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Spartak (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spartak
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Mega Leks Adriatic League |
109-104 | W |
| 24/10 | Partizan Adriatic League |
80-82 | L |
| 18/10 | U - Banca Transilvania Cluj Adriatic League |
89-75 | W |
| 10/10 | Ilirija Adriatic League |
82-76 | W |
| 03/10 | Bosna Adriatic League |
79-95 | L |
| 10/05 | BC Dubai Adriatic League |
84-88 | L |
| 06/05 | BC Dubai Adriatic League |
74-102 | L |
| 03/05 | Igokea Adriatic League |
80-68 | W |
| 30/04 | Zadar Adriatic League |
86-68 | W |
| 24/04 | Split Adriatic League |
83-93 | L |
Zadar
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | BC Dubai Adriatic League |
75-89 | L |
| 25/10 | Ilirija Adriatic League |
95-70 | W |
| 16/10 | BC GGMT Vienna Adriatic League |
63-78 | L |
| 11/10 | Mega Leks Adriatic League |
82-88 | L |
| 05/10 | Studentski Centar Adriatic League |
79-65 | W |
| 30/04 | Spartak Adriatic League |
68-86 | L |
| 27/04 | Studentski Centar Adriatic League |
59-73 | L |
| 17/04 | Krka Adriatic League |
75-65 | W |
| 14/04 | FMP Adriatic League |
76-65 | W |
| 03/04 | Borac Cacak Adriatic League |
67-65 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spartak vs Zadar?
Our model gives 64% to Spartak.
How many points are expected in Spartak vs Zadar?
The model estimates 153.8 total points (Spartak 79.4 · Zadar 74.4).