Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 14/11, 18:00
Prediction: Breogan vs San Pablo Burgos
Team pages: Breogan · San Pablo Burgos
Prediction summary
Estimated points
190.2Total
Breogan99.4
San Pablo Burgos90.8
1X2
Breogan
San Pablo Burgos
Recent form · 10 last
Breogan
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
San Pablo Burgos
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Breogan
5–1
San Pablo Burgos
(6 last)
- San Pablo Burgos94-99Breogan
- Breogan105-78San Pablo Burgos
- Breogan94-87San Pablo Burgos
- Breogan105-96San Pablo Burgos
- San Pablo Burgos62-87Breogan
- Breogan76-95San Pablo Burgos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Breogan 1550 · San Pablo Burgos 1421
| Breogan | San Pablo Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 22% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
190.2 points · Bet365 line 189.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points190.2Breogan 99.4 · San Pablo Burgos 90.8
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breogan (rating 1550 vs 1421).
- Breogan is a clear favourite (73% market).
- H2H favours Breogan: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Breogan | San Pablo Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 99.1 / 96.3 | 89.5 / 89.9 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 101.6 / 98.4 | 86 / 89.2 |
| Est. result | 99 | 91 |
Est. total190.2
Line O/U189.5
Diff.0.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Breogan 5–0–1 San Pablo Burgos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Spain Liga ACB | San Pablo Burgos | 94-99 | Breogan |
| 22/11/25 Spain Liga ACB | Breogan | 105-78 | San Pablo Burgos |
| 28/09/25 Club Friendlies | Breogan | 94-87 | San Pablo Burgos |
| 03/04/22 Spain Liga ACB | Breogan | 105-96 | San Pablo Burgos |
| 23/09/21 Spain Liga ACB | San Pablo Burgos | 62-87 | Breogan |
| 26/05/19 Spain Liga ACB | Breogan | 76-95 | San Pablo Burgos |
Standings · Spain Liga ACB
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 7 | 7 | 0 | 744 | 597 | 0 |
| 2 | Valencia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 694 | 616 | 0 |
| 3 | Baskonia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 665 | 590 | 0 |
| 4 | Tenerife | 7 | 5 | 2 | 607 | 553 | 0 |
| 5 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 2 | 648 | 614 | 0 |
| 6 | Barcelona | 7 | 5 | 2 | 681 | 661 | 0 |
| 7 | Breogan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 719 | 691 | 0 |
| 8 | Bilbao | 7 | 4 | 3 | 644 | 648 | 0 |
| 9 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 3 | 635 | 681 | 0 |
| 10 | Unicaja Malaga | 7 | 3 | 4 | 621 | 603 | 0 |
| 11 | UCAM Murcia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 631 | 653 | 0 |
| 12 | Monbus Obradoiro | 7 | 3 | 4 | 632 | 676 | 0 |
| 13 | Coruna | 7 | 3 | 4 | 643 | 699 | 0 |
| 14 | Joventut | 7 | 2 | 5 | 625 | 629 | 0 |
| 15 | San Pablo Burgos | 7 | 2 | 5 | 621 | 625 | 0 |
| 16 | BC Andorra | 7 | 1 | 6 | 607 | 682 | 0 |
| 17 | Forca Lleida | 7 | 1 | 6 | 650 | 739 | 0 |
| 18 | Manresa | 7 | 1 | 6 | 606 | 716 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Breogan | San Pablo Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Monbus Obradoiro | 110-90 W | 72-79 L |
| BC Andorra | 102-108 L | 85-83 W |
| Manresa | 101-95 W | 99-81 W |
| Joventut | 110-104 W | 79-86 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Breogan
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
91-99 | L |
| 01/11 | Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB |
110-90 | W |
| 25/10 | Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB |
90-103 | L |
| 17/10 | BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB |
102-108 | L |
| 10/10 | Girona Spain Liga ACB |
115-92 | W |
| 03/10 | Manresa Spain Liga ACB |
101-95 | W |
| 27/09 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
110-104 | W |
| 29/05 | Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB |
94-95 | L |
| 23/05 | Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB |
83-101 | L |
| 16/05 | Girona Spain Liga ACB |
95-76 | W |
San Pablo Burgos
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
93-100 | L |
| 01/11 | Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB |
79-90 | L |
| 24/10 | Manresa Spain Liga ACB |
99-81 | W |
| 17/10 | Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB |
72-79 | L |
| 11/10 | Bilbao Spain Liga ACB |
87-96 | L |
| 04/10 | Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB |
94-81 | W |
| 27/09 | Baskonia Spain Liga ACB |
97-98 | L |
| 29/05 | Granada Spain Liga ACB |
110-105 | W |
| 24/05 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
79-86 | L |
| 17/05 | BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB |
85-83 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Breogan vs San Pablo Burgos?
Our model gives 73% to Breogan.
How many points are expected in Breogan vs San Pablo Burgos?
The model estimates 190.2 total points (Breogan 99.4 · San Pablo Burgos 90.8).