Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 15/11, 15:50

Prediction: Zalgiris vs Neptunas

Team pages: Zalgiris · Neptunas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.7Total

Zalgiris95

Neptunas77.8

1X2

89% 11%

Zalgiris Neptunas

Recent form · 10 last

Zalgiris 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Neptunas 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Zalgiris 6–0 Neptunas (6 last)

Neptunas69-93Zalgiris
Neptunas90-93Zalgiris
Zalgiris119-81Neptunas
Zalgiris87-76Neptunas
Zalgiris112-77Neptunas
Neptunas71-84Zalgiris

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zalgiris 1685 · Neptunas 1486

	Zalgiris	Neptunas
Our model	84%	16%
Market	90%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 172.7 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.7Zalgiris 95 · Neptunas 77.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zalgiris (rating 1685 vs 1486).
Zalgiris is a clear favourite (89% market).
H2H favours Zalgiris: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Zalgiris	Neptunas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	93.4 / 76.2	85.8 / 84.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90 / 77.8	86.4 / 87.2
Est. result	95	78

Est. total172.7

Line O/U172.5

Diff.0.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.04

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-16.5)1.83

2 (+16.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.83

Under 172.51.83

Diff.: 2.6 · Est. total: 169.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Pinn 1.09 ★
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	2
15:47 +6’	1.04	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:52 +2’	1.09	5.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zalgiris 6–0–0 Neptunas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Lithuania LKL	Neptunas	69-93	Zalgiris
13/05/26 Lithuania LKL	Neptunas	90-93	Zalgiris
21/02/26 Lithuania Cup	Zalgiris	119-81	Neptunas
08/02/26 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	87-76	Neptunas
04/01/26 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	112-77	Neptunas
27/09/25 Lithuania LKL	Neptunas	71-84	Zalgiris

Standings · Lithuania LKL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Zalgiris	9	9	0	839	685
2	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	9	6	3	801	776
3	Rytas Vilnius	8	5	3	717	683
4	Neptunas	9	5	4	767	762
5	Lietkabelis	9	5	4	716	730
6	Siauliai	9	4	5	749	774
7	Juventus	9	3	6	767	792
8	Jonava	9	3	6	706	738
9	Taurage	9	3	6	731	784
10	Nevezis	8	1	7	591	660

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zalgiris	Neptunas
Juventus	94-85 W	99-84 W
Rytas Vilnius	94-89 W	77-86 L
Jonava	86-63 W	84-83 W
Taurage	96-76 W	82-80 W
Nevezis	80-76 W	89-62 W
Lietkabelis	97-68 W	79-99 L
Siauliai	101-82 W	110-88 W
Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	98-77 W	78-87 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zalgiris (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zalgiris

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Juventus Lithuania LKL	94-85	W
02/11	Rytas Vilnius Lithuania LKL	94-89	W
25/10	Jonava Lithuania LKL	86-63	W
18/10	Taurage Lithuania LKL	96-76	W
11/10	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	80-76	W
04/10	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	97-68	W
27/09	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	101-82	W
20/09	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	93-69	W
17/09	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	98-77	W
12/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	95-77	W

Neptunas

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Taurage Lithuania LKL	82-80	W
31/10	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	79-99	L
25/10	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	110-88	W
17/10	Jonava Lithuania LKL	84-83	W
10/10	Rytas Vilnius Lithuania LKL	77-86	L
03/10	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	89-62	W
26/09	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	78-87	L
23/09	Juventus Lithuania LKL	99-84	W
20/09	Zalgiris Lithuania LKL	69-93	L
13/06	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	91-82	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zalgiris vs Neptunas?

Our model gives 89% to Zalgiris.

How many points are expected in Zalgiris vs Neptunas?

The model estimates 172.7 total points (Zalgiris 95 · Neptunas 77.8).