Basketball · France Nationale 1 · 29/09, 20:00

Prediction: Union Tarbes Lourdes vs Toulouse

Team pages: Union Tarbes Lourdes · Toulouse

Prediction summary

Estimated points

162.2Total

Union Tarbes Lourdes85.8

Toulouse76.4

1X2

75% 25%

Union Tarbes Lourdes Toulouse

Recent form · 10 last

Union Tarbes Lourdes 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Toulouse 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Union Tarbes Lourdes 6–0 Toulouse (6 last)

Union Tarbes Lourdes74-68Toulouse
Toulouse92-95Union Tarbes Lourdes
Toulouse59-79Union Tarbes Lourdes
Union Tarbes Lourdes80-75Toulouse
Toulouse85-99Union Tarbes Lourdes
Toulouse79-86Union Tarbes Lourdes

Model analysis

Estimated points162.2Union Tarbes Lourdes 85.8 · Toulouse 76.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Tarbes Lourdes (rating 1568 vs 1471).
Union Tarbes Lourdes is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours Union Tarbes Lourdes: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Union Tarbes Lourdes	Toulouse
Points F\|A (Last 10)	76.3 / 74.6	82.4 / 85.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	72.4 / 75.8	84.6 / 84.8
Est. result	86	76

Est. total162.2

Line O/U157

Diff.5.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 1571.86

Under 1571.81

Diff.: 2.3 · Est. total: 159.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:48

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.29 → 1.29	Pinn 1.29
2	2.97 → 2.97	Pinn 2.97

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 10.9%

Time*	1	2
20:09 +39’	1.29	2.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Tarbes Lourdes 6–0–0 Toulouse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/12/25 France Nationale 1	Union Tarbes Lourdes	74-68	Toulouse
30/09/25 France Nationale 1	Toulouse	92-95	Union Tarbes Lourdes
12/09/25 Coupe De France	Toulouse	59-79	Union Tarbes Lourdes
04/02/25 France Nationale 1	Union Tarbes Lourdes	80-75	Toulouse
05/11/24 France Nationale 1	Toulouse	85-99	Union Tarbes Lourdes
06/02/24 France Nationale 1	Toulouse	79-86	Union Tarbes Lourdes

Standings · France Nationale 1 · Nationale 1 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Angers BC	2	2	0	138	121	4
2	CEP Lorient	2	1	1	162	157	3
3	Union Tarbes Lourdes	2	1	1	155	154	3
4	Les Sables Vendee	2	1	1	142	141	3
5	Union Tours Basket Metropole	2	1	1	149	155	3
6	Vendee Challans Basket	1	1	0	87	73	2
7	Pays de Fougères Basket	1	1	0	66	61	2
8	Vitre Aurore	1	1	0	69	66	2
9	Toulouse	1	1	0	87	85	2
10	JSA Bordeaux	2	0	2	141	152	2
11	C’Chartres Basket M	2	0	2	148	168	2
12	Union Rennes Basket 35	1	0	1	85	87	1
13	US Laval	1	0	1	73	82	1
14	Pole France	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Tarbes Lourdes	Toulouse
Le Havre	80-68 W	80-82 L
Orchies	95-89 W	71-85 L
Boulogne Sur Mer	76-75 W	84-88 L
Mulhouse	78-68 W	82-81 W
Berck/Rang du Fliers	72-67 W	79-88 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Union Tarbes Lourdes (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Tarbes Lourdes

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	Vitre Aurore France Nationale 1	66-69	L
18/09	JSA Bordeaux France Nationale 1	89-85	W
24/05	Levallois Basketball France Nationale 1	70-77	L
22/05	Levallois Basketball France Nationale 1	73-65	W
15/05	Levallois Basketball France Nationale 1	64-83	L
08/05	Le Havre France Nationale 1	80-68	W
05/05	Orchies France Nationale 1	95-89	W
30/04	Boulogne Sur Mer France Nationale 1	76-75	W
24/04	Mulhouse France Nationale 1	78-68	W
21/04	Berck/Rang du Fliers France Nationale 1	72-67	W

Toulouse

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	Union Rennes Basket 35 France Nationale 1	87-85	W
08/05	Orchies France Nationale 1	71-85	L
05/05	Boulogne Sur Mer France Nationale 1	84-88	L
01/05	Loon Plage France Nationale 1	91-96	L
26/04	Fos-sur-Mer France Nationale 1	90-70	W
21/04	Le Havre France Nationale 1	80-82	L
17/04	Berck/Rang du Fliers France Nationale 1	79-88	L
08/04	Mulhouse France Nationale 1	82-81	W
03/04	Orchies France Nationale 1	94-87	W
31/03	Boulogne Sur Mer France Nationale 1	66-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Tarbes Lourdes vs Toulouse?

Our model gives 75% to Union Tarbes Lourdes.

How many points are expected in Union Tarbes Lourdes vs Toulouse?

The model estimates 162.2 total points (Union Tarbes Lourdes 85.8 · Toulouse 76.4).