Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 15/11, 18:10

Prediction: Rytas Vilnius vs Jonava

Team pages: Rytas Vilnius · Jonava

Prediction summary

Estimated points

170.8Total

Rytas Vilnius93.6

Jonava77.2

1X2

88% 12%

Rytas Vilnius Jonava

Markets

Under 174.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Rytas Vilnius 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLWL

Jonava 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Rytas Vilnius 6–0 Jonava (6 last)

Jonava87-91Rytas Vilnius
Rytas Vilnius98-81Jonava
Jonava84-101Rytas Vilnius
Jonava71-105Rytas Vilnius
Rytas Vilnius104-72Jonava
Rytas Vilnius112-82Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rytas Vilnius 1570 · Jonava 1426

	Rytas Vilnius	Jonava
Our model	79%	21%
Market	90%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 170.8 points · Bet365 line 174.5 · -3.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points170.8Rytas Vilnius 93.6 · Jonava 77.2

Over / Under 174.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~166.7 pts · strength 8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rytas Vilnius (rating 1570 vs 1426).
Rytas Vilnius is a clear favourite (88% market).
H2H favours Rytas Vilnius: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Rytas Vilnius	Jonava
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.6 / 87.6	78.1 / 82.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86.8 / 82.6	79.4 / 86.8
Est. result	94	77

Est. total170.8

Line O/U174.5

Diff.3.7

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.04

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-16.5)1.83

2 (+16.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 174.51.83

Under 174.51.83

Diff.: 5.45 · Est. total: 169.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Pinn 1.09 ★
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	2
16:13 +41’	1.04	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
16:45 +9’	1.09	5.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rytas Vilnius 6–0–0 Jonava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/11/26 Lithuania LKL	Jonava	87-91	Rytas Vilnius
22/04/26 Lithuania LKL	Rytas Vilnius	98-81	Jonava
07/02/26 Lithuania LKL	Jonava	84-101	Rytas Vilnius
22/11/25 Lithuania LKL	Jonava	71-105	Rytas Vilnius
09/11/25 Lithuania LKL	Rytas Vilnius	104-72	Jonava
29/04/25 Lithuania LKL	Rytas Vilnius	112-82	Jonava

Standings · Lithuania LKL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Zalgiris	9	9	0	839	685
2	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	9	6	3	801	776
3	Rytas Vilnius	8	5	3	717	683
4	Neptunas	9	5	4	767	762
5	Lietkabelis	9	5	4	716	730
6	Siauliai	9	4	5	749	774
7	Juventus	9	3	6	767	792
8	Jonava	9	3	6	706	738
9	Taurage	9	3	6	731	784
10	Nevezis	8	1	7	591	660

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rytas Vilnius	Jonava
Lietkabelis	81-85 L	71-65 W
Zalgiris	89-94 L	63-86 L
Juventus	94-76 W	94-82 W
Taurage	79-71 W	90-95 L
Siauliai	95-88 W	63-79 L
Neptunas	86-77 W	83-84 L
Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	102-105 L	70-91 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rytas Vilnius (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rytas Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	81-85	L
05/11	Jonava Lithuania LKL	91-87	W
02/11	Zalgiris Lithuania LKL	89-94	L
25/10	Juventus Lithuania LKL	94-76	W
21/10	Taurage Lithuania LKL	79-71	W
17/10	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	95-88	W
10/10	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	86-77	W
03/10	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	102-105	L
23/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	95-101	L
21/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	84-92	L

Jonava

LLWLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	70-91	L
05/11	Rytas Vilnius Lithuania LKL	87-91	L
31/10	Juventus Lithuania LKL	94-82	W
25/10	Zalgiris Lithuania LKL	63-86	L
17/10	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	83-84	L
10/10	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	71-65	W
03/10	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	63-79	L
22/09	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	85-65	W
19/09	Taurage Lithuania LKL	90-95	L
22/05	Zalgiris Lithuania LKL	75-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rytas Vilnius vs Jonava?

Our model gives 88% to Rytas Vilnius.

How many points are expected in Rytas Vilnius vs Jonava?

The model estimates 170.8 total points (Rytas Vilnius 93.6 · Jonava 77.2).

Over or under 174.5 points?

Recent history points to under 174.5 points (65%).