Basketball · Italy National Serie B · 11/11, 20:30

Prediction: Virtus Lumezzane vs Aurora Desio

Team pages: Virtus Lumezzane · Aurora Desio

Prediction summary

Estimated points

152.5Total

Virtus Lumezzane80.3

Aurora Desio72.2

1X2

72% 28%

Virtus Lumezzane Aurora Desio

Recent form · 10 last

Virtus Lumezzane 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWWWW

Aurora Desio 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Virtus Lumezzane 3–3 Aurora Desio (6 last)

Aurora Desio83-67Virtus Lumezzane
Virtus Lumezzane68-78Aurora Desio
Virtus Lumezzane76-71Aurora Desio
Aurora Desio81-88Virtus Lumezzane
Aurora Desio83-55Virtus Lumezzane
Virtus Lumezzane74-71Aurora Desio

Model analysis

Estimated points152.5Virtus Lumezzane 80.3 · Aurora Desio 72.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virtus Lumezzane (rating 1561 vs 1489).
Virtus Lumezzane is a clear favourite (72% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Virtus Lumezzane	Aurora Desio
Points F\|A (Last 10)	77.9 / 74.2	74.9 / 81
Points F\|A (Last 5)	82.8 / 71	70.6 / 76.2
Est. result	80	72

Est. total152.5

Line O/U151.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 151.51.81

Under 151.51.85

Diff.: 2.5 · Est. total: 154

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.33
2	2.84 → 2.84	Pinn 2.84

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	2
21:37 +10’	1.33	2.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Lumezzane 3–0–3 Aurora Desio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Italy National Serie B	Aurora Desio	83-67	Virtus Lumezzane
12/11/25 Italy National Serie B	Virtus Lumezzane	68-78	Aurora Desio
23/03/25 Italy National Serie B	Virtus Lumezzane	76-71	Aurora Desio
28/12/24 Italy National Serie B	Aurora Desio	81-88	Virtus Lumezzane
25/03/23 Italy National Serie B	Aurora Desio	83-55	Virtus Lumezzane
27/11/22 Italy National Serie B	Virtus Lumezzane	74-71	Aurora Desio

Standings · Italy National Serie B · Serie B 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Virtus Lumezzane	7	6	1	534	494	12
2	Ferrara Basket 2018	7	5	2	505	478	10
3	UCC Assigeco Piacenza	7	5	2	550	495	10
4	Orzi Basket	7	5	2	571	494	10
5	Leonessa Brescia	7	5	2	548	518	10
6	Aurora Desio	7	4	3	525	544	8
7	Treviglio Brianza	7	4	3	537	529	8
8	Reggio Calabria	7	4	3	488	483	8
9	Siaz Basket	7	4	3	518	482	8
10	Costa D'Orlando	7	4	3	544	551	8
11	Rucker Sanve	7	3	4	553	521	6
12	Legnano	7	3	4	464	462	6
13	Fortitudo Agrigento	7	2	5	500	525	4
14	Fiorenzuola Bees	7	2	5	546	547	4
15	Sangiorgese Basket	7	2	5	480	535	4
16	Fulgor Basket Omegna	7	2	5	468	517	4
17	Imola	7	2	5	430	502	4
18	Tramarossa Vicenza	7	1	6	446	530	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virtus Lumezzane	Aurora Desio
Fiorenzuola Bees	98-95 W	94-91 W
Treviglio Brianza	87-70 W	77-82 L
Legnano	57-55 W	67-79 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Virtus Lumezzane (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virtus Lumezzane

LWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Fiorenzuola Bees Italy National Serie B	98-95	W
01/11	Fulgor Basket Omegna Italy National Serie B	81-49	W
25/10	Fortitudo Agrigento Italy National Serie B	77-76	W
18/10	Tramarossa Vicenza Italy National Serie B	71-65	W
11/10	Treviglio Brianza Italy National Serie B	87-70	W
04/10	Legnano Italy National Serie B	57-55	W
27/09	Costa D'Orlando Italy National Serie B	63-84	L
26/04	UCC Assigeco Piacenza Italy National Serie B	92-83	W
19/04	Herons Montecatini Italy National Serie B	78-73	W
15/04	Monferrato Italy National Serie B	75-92	L

Aurora Desio

LLLWWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Sangiorgese Basket Italy National Serie B	80-74	W
01/11	Reggio Calabria Italy National Serie B	67-66	W
24/10	Treviglio Brianza Italy National Serie B	77-82	L
18/10	Leonessa Brescia Italy National Serie B	62-80	L
11/10	Legnano Italy National Serie B	67-79	L
03/10	Siaz Basket Italy National Serie B	78-72	W
27/09	Fiorenzuola Bees Italy National Serie B	94-91	W
26/04	Siaz Basket Italy National Serie B	78-91	L
18/04	Fiorenzuola Bees Italy National Serie B	83-88	L
15/04	Legnano Italy National Serie B	63-87	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virtus Lumezzane vs Aurora Desio?

Our model gives 72% to Virtus Lumezzane.

How many points are expected in Virtus Lumezzane vs Aurora Desio?

The model estimates 152.5 total points (Virtus Lumezzane 80.3 · Aurora Desio 72.2).