Basketball · Paraguay Primera · 21/08, 23:15
Prediction: San Alfonzo vs Amambay
Team pages: San Alfonzo · Amambay
Prediction summary
Estimated points
158.3Total
San Alfonzo70.6
Amambay87.7
1X2
San Alfonzo
Amambay
Recent form · 10 last
San Alfonzo
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Amambay
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Alfonzo
0–6
Amambay
(6 last)
- Amambay110-79San Alfonzo
- Amambay108-68San Alfonzo
- San Alfonzo48-79Amambay
- Amambay113-71San Alfonzo
- Amambay119-72San Alfonzo
- San Alfonzo75-108Amambay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Alfonzo 1367 · Amambay 1588
| San Alfonzo | Amambay | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
Estimated total (ours)
158.3 points · Bet365 line 153.5 · +4.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points158.3San Alfonzo 70.6 · Amambay 87.7
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amambay (rating 1367 vs 1588).
- Amambay is a clear favourite (89% market).
- H2H favours Amambay: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| San Alfonzo | Amambay | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 66.5 / 85.3 | 85 / 71.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 76.6 / 87.8 | 77.8 / 62.6 |
| Est. result | 71 | 88 |
Est. total158.3
Line O/U153.5
Diff.4.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Alfonzo 0–0–6 Amambay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/26 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 110-79 | San Alfonzo |
| 14/05/26 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 108-68 | San Alfonzo |
| 21/04/26 Paraguay Primera | San Alfonzo | 48-79 | Amambay |
| 27/10/25 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 113-71 | San Alfonzo |
| 28/09/25 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 119-72 | San Alfonzo |
| 04/09/25 Paraguay Primera | San Alfonzo | 75-108 | Amambay |
Standings · Paraguay Primera · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo San Jose | 4 | 4 | 0 | 376 | 318 | 8 |
| 2 | Colonias Gold | 4 | 3 | 1 | 326 | 276 | 7 |
| 3 | Olimpia Kings | 4 | 3 | 1 | 347 | 314 | 7 |
| 4 | Amambay | 4 | 2 | 2 | 311 | 244 | 6 |
| 5 | Deportivo Campoalto | 4 | 2 | 2 | 323 | 337 | 6 |
| 6 | Felix Perez Cardozo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 305 | 363 | 5 |
| 7 | San Alfonzo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 304 | 329 | 5 |
| 8 | Capiata Bulls | 4 | 0 | 4 | 221 | 332 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Alfonzo | Amambay |
|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Kings | 84-102 L | 72-77 L |
| Deportivo Campoalto | 75-86 L | 82-57 W |
| Capiata Bulls | 60-53 W | 88-39 W |
| Ciudad Nueva | 79-73 W | 88-64 W |
| Deportivo San Jose | 39-89 L | 69-71 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Amambay (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Alfonzo
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
84-102 | L |
| 14/08 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
75-86 | L |
| 12/08 | Felix Perez Cardozo Paraguay Primera |
85-88 | L |
| 07/08 | Capiata Bulls Paraguay Primera |
60-53 | W |
| 12/06 | Amambay Paraguay Primera |
79-110 | L |
| 09/06 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
63-73 | L |
| 05/06 | Ciudad Nueva Paraguay Primera |
79-73 | W |
| 29/05 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
49-98 | L |
| 26/05 | Colonias Gold Paraguay Primera |
52-81 | L |
| 22/05 | Deportivo San Jose Paraguay Primera |
39-89 | L |
Amambay
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
82-57 | W |
| 14/08 | Capiata Bulls Paraguay Primera |
88-39 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo San Jose Paraguay Primera |
69-71 | L |
| 08/08 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
72-77 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
78-69 | W |
| 18/06 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
90-89 | W |
| 12/06 | San Alfonzo Paraguay Primera |
110-79 | W |
| 08/06 | Ciudad Nueva Paraguay Primera |
88-64 | W |
| 05/06 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
88-74 | W |
| 29/05 | Deportivo San Jose Paraguay Primera |
85-95 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Alfonzo vs Amambay?
Our model gives 89% to Amambay.
How many points are expected in San Alfonzo vs Amambay?
The model estimates 158.3 total points (San Alfonzo 70.6 · Amambay 87.7).