Basketball · Paraguay Primera · 18/09, 01:00
Prediction: Amambay vs San Alfonzo
Team pages: Amambay · San Alfonzo
Prediction summary
Estimated points
167.7Total
Amambay92.8
San Alfonzo74.9
1X2
Amambay
San Alfonzo
Recent form · 10 last
Amambay
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
San Alfonzo
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Amambay
6–0
San Alfonzo
(6 last)
- San Alfonzo67-81Amambay
- Amambay110-79San Alfonzo
- Amambay108-68San Alfonzo
- San Alfonzo48-79Amambay
- Amambay113-71San Alfonzo
- Amambay119-72San Alfonzo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amambay 1563 · San Alfonzo 1372
| Amambay | San Alfonzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 83% | 17% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
167.7 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · +2.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points167.7Amambay 92.8 · San Alfonzo 74.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amambay (rating 1563 vs 1372).
- Amambay is a clear favourite (90% market).
- H2H favours Amambay: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Amambay | San Alfonzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 82.3 / 71.8 | 80.6 / 96.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 86.2 / 81.4 | 88.4 / 102.4 |
| Est. result | 93 | 75 |
Est. total167.7
Line O/U165.5
Diff.2.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Amambay 6–0–0 San Alfonzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/26 Paraguay Primera | San Alfonzo | 67-81 | Amambay |
| 12/06/26 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 110-79 | San Alfonzo |
| 14/05/26 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 108-68 | San Alfonzo |
| 21/04/26 Paraguay Primera | San Alfonzo | 48-79 | Amambay |
| 27/10/25 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 113-71 | San Alfonzo |
| 28/09/25 Paraguay Primera | Amambay | 119-72 | San Alfonzo |
Standings · Paraguay Primera · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo San Jose | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1051 | 844 | 22 |
| 2 | Olimpia Kings | 11 | 9 | 2 | 1008 | 808 | 20 |
| 3 | Colonias Gold | 11 | 8 | 3 | 916 | 759 | 19 |
| 4 | Amambay | 10 | 5 | 5 | 823 | 718 | 15 |
| 5 | Deportivo Campoalto | 11 | 4 | 7 | 904 | 1000 | 15 |
| 6 | Felix Perez Cardozo | 10 | 4 | 6 | 763 | 882 | 14 |
| 7 | San Alfonzo | 11 | 2 | 9 | 866 | 1018 | 13 |
| 8 | Capiata Bulls | 11 | 0 | 11 | 753 | 1055 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Amambay | San Alfonzo |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Campoalto | 98-83 W | 104-114 L |
| Capiata Bulls | 114-75 W | 126-89 W |
| Deportivo San Jose | 71-90 L | 53-96 L |
| Olimpia Kings | 76-79 L | 75-125 L |
| Colonias Gold | 72-80 L | 45-90 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Amambay (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amambay
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
98-83 | W |
| 11/09 | Capiata Bulls Paraguay Primera |
114-75 | W |
| 09/09 | Deportivo San Jose Paraguay Primera |
71-90 | L |
| 04/09 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
76-79 | L |
| 24/08 | Colonias Gold Paraguay Primera |
72-80 | L |
| 21/08 | San Alfonzo Paraguay Primera |
81-67 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
82-57 | W |
| 14/08 | Capiata Bulls Paraguay Primera |
88-39 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo San Jose Paraguay Primera |
69-71 | L |
| 08/08 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
72-77 | L |
San Alfonzo
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
75-125 | L |
| 11/09 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
104-114 | L |
| 08/09 | Felix Perez Cardozo Paraguay Primera |
92-94 | L |
| 05/09 | Capiata Bulls Paraguay Primera |
126-89 | W |
| 01/09 | Colonias Gold Paraguay Primera |
45-90 | L |
| 25/08 | Deportivo San Jose Paraguay Primera |
53-96 | L |
| 21/08 | Amambay Paraguay Primera |
67-81 | L |
| 19/08 | Olimpia Kings Paraguay Primera |
84-102 | L |
| 14/08 | Deportivo Campoalto Paraguay Primera |
75-86 | L |
| 12/08 | Felix Perez Cardozo Paraguay Primera |
85-88 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amambay vs San Alfonzo?
Our model gives 90% to Amambay.
How many points are expected in Amambay vs San Alfonzo?
The model estimates 167.7 total points (Amambay 92.8 · San Alfonzo 74.9).