Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 11/11, 11:05

Prediction: Tokyo Alvark vs Nagasaki Velca

Team pages: Tokyo Alvark · Nagasaki Velca

Prediction summary

Estimated points

168Total

Tokyo Alvark90.2

Nagasaki Velca77.9

1X2

81% 19%

Tokyo Alvark Nagasaki Velca

Recent form · 10 last

Tokyo Alvark 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Nagasaki Velca 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tokyo Alvark 4–2 Nagasaki Velca (6 last)

Nagasaki Velca96-56Tokyo Alvark
Nagasaki Velca93-78Tokyo Alvark
Nagasaki Velca70-91Tokyo Alvark
Nagasaki Velca78-93Tokyo Alvark
Nagasaki Velca81-83Tokyo Alvark
Nagasaki Velca52-89Tokyo Alvark

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tokyo Alvark 1554 · Nagasaki Velca 1493

	Tokyo Alvark	Nagasaki Velca
Our model	70%	30%
Market	83%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 168 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · +2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points168Tokyo Alvark 90.2 · Nagasaki Velca 77.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tokyo Alvark (rating 1554 vs 1493).
Tokyo Alvark is a clear favourite (81% market).
H2H favours Tokyo Alvark: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tokyo Alvark	Nagasaki Velca
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.6 / 81	81.1 / 83.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	95 / 82.4	85.8 / 86.4
Est. result	90	78

Est. total168

Line O/U165.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.13

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-11.5)1.83

2 (+11.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 165.51.83

Under 165.51.83

Diff.: 3 · Est. total: 168.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
12:45 +1’	1.13	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tokyo Alvark 4–0–2 Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	96-56	Tokyo Alvark
07/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	93-78	Tokyo Alvark
08/03/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	70-91	Tokyo Alvark
07/03/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	78-93	Tokyo Alvark
08/12/24 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	81-83	Tokyo Alvark
07/12/24 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	52-89	Tokyo Alvark

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Hiroshima Dragonflies	14	13	1	1265	1108
2	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	12	11	1	1094	903
3	Mikawa Seahorses	12	9	3	1084	963
4	San En Neo Phoenix	10	7	3	853	814
5	Kyoto Hannaryz	14	8	6	1181	1099
6	Ryukyu Golden Kings	15	7	8	1254	1228
7	Shiga Lakes	14	6	8	1198	1243
8	Shinshu Brave Warriors	15	6	9	1266	1299
9	Shimane Susanoo Magic	13	5	8	1082	1068
10	Nagasaki Velca	16	6	10	1238	1311
11	Kobe Storks	14	4	10	1113	1189
12	Saga Ballooners	14	1	13	1095	1333
13	Osaka Evessa	14	1	13	950	1258

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tokyo Alvark	Nagasaki Velca
Sendai 89ers	69-96 L	87-107 L
Saga Ballooners	112-88 W	84-66 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tokyo Alvark

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier	88-67	W
06/11	Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier	69-96	L
01/11	Utsunomiya Brex Japan B League Premier	106-71	W
31/10	Utsunomiya Brex Japan B League Premier	100-90	W
26/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	112-88	W
24/10	Mikawa Seahorses Japan B League Premier	82-91	L
22/10	Ibaraki Robots Japan B League Premier	66-69	L
19/10	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	90-74	W
17/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	100-86	W
12/10	Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier	103-78	W

Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/11	Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier	87-107	L
06/11	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	73-80	L
01/11	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	87-90	L
31/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	81-71	W
26/10	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	101-84	W
23/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	85-89	L
21/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	84-66	W
19/10	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	65-82	L
17/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	63-95	L
12/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	85-69	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tokyo Alvark vs Nagasaki Velca?

Our model gives 81% to Tokyo Alvark.

How many points are expected in Tokyo Alvark vs Nagasaki Velca?

The model estimates 168 total points (Tokyo Alvark 90.2 · Nagasaki Velca 77.9).