Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 14/11, 05:00

Prediction: Chiba Jets vs Nagasaki Velca

Team pages: Chiba Jets · Nagasaki Velca

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173.5Total

Chiba Jets89.1

Nagasaki Velca84.4

1X2

63% 37%

Chiba Jets Nagasaki Velca

Recent form · 10 last

Chiba Jets 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Nagasaki Velca 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chiba Jets 2–4 Nagasaki Velca (6 last)

Nagasaki Velca102-93Chiba Jets
Nagasaki Velca82-74Chiba Jets
Nagasaki Velca93-77Chiba Jets
Nagasaki Velca86-79Chiba Jets
Nagasaki Velca75-79Chiba Jets
Nagasaki Velca50-82Chiba Jets

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chiba Jets 1478 · Nagasaki Velca 1500

	Chiba Jets	Nagasaki Velca
Our model	60%	40%
Market	63%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 173.5 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173.5Chiba Jets 89.1 · Nagasaki Velca 84.4

Match keys

H2H favours Nagasaki Velca: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Chiba Jets	Nagasaki Velca
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.4 / 90.6	79.9 / 84.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	94.8 / 90.8	80.2 / 86
Est. result	89	84

Est. total173.5

Line O/U172.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.48

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.83

2 (+4.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.83

Under 172.51.83

Diff.: 0.25 · Est. total: 172.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.65▲	Pinn 2.15 ★
2	2.55 → 2.12▼	Bet365 2.12

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
12:41 +6’	1.48	2.55
14:44 +4’	1.65▲	2.12▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
14:44 +3’	2.15	1.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chiba Jets 2–0–4 Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	102-93	Chiba Jets
15/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	82-74	Chiba Jets
28/12/25 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	93-77	Chiba Jets
27/12/25 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	86-79	Chiba Jets
27/10/24 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	75-79	Chiba Jets
26/10/24 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	50-82	Chiba Jets

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	12	11	1	1094	903
2	Hiroshima Dragonflies	15	13	2	1356	1214
3	Mikawa Seahorses	13	10	3	1175	1049
4	San En Neo Phoenix	11	8	3	963	910
5	Kyoto Hannaryz	15	8	7	1251	1193
6	Ryukyu Golden Kings	16	8	8	1335	1306
7	Shimane Susanoo Magic	14	6	8	1177	1142
8	Shiga Lakes	15	6	9	1285	1333
9	Nagasaki Velca	17	6	11	1311	1393
10	Shinshu Brave Warriors	17	6	11	1426	1475
11	Kobe Storks	15	4	11	1200	1297
12	Saga Ballooners	14	1	13	1095	1333
13	Osaka Evessa	16	1	15	1121	1455

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chiba Jets	Nagasaki Velca
Shiga Lakes	90-87 W	85-89 L
Saga Ballooners	111-103 W	84-66 W
Altiri Chiba	89-87 W	65-82 L
Tokyo Sun Rockers	64-107 L	63-95 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chiba Jets

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/11	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	90-87	W
10/11	Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier	106-94	W
08/11	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	111-103	W
06/11	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	89-87	W
01/11	Toyama Grouses Japan B League Premier	78-83	L
31/10	Toyama Grouses Japan B League Premier	93-100	L
25/10	Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier	87-65	W
21/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	79-102	L
19/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	64-107	L
17/10	Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League Premier	97-78	W

Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/11	Tokyo Alvark Japan B League Premier	73-82	L
09/11	Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier	87-107	L
06/11	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	73-80	L
01/11	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	87-90	L
31/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	81-71	W
26/10	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	101-84	W
23/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	85-89	L
21/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	84-66	W
19/10	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	65-82	L
17/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	63-95	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chiba Jets vs Nagasaki Velca?

Our model gives 63% to Chiba Jets.

How many points are expected in Chiba Jets vs Nagasaki Velca?

The model estimates 173.5 total points (Chiba Jets 89.1 · Nagasaki Velca 84.4).