Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 03/07, 16:00

JK Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Linnameeskond

Expected goals: 3.23 (JK Tallinna Kalev 1.92 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1.31). The model gives 51% home, 23% draw, 26% away. Under 3.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.

51%1

51% 23% 26%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1492 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1510

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	Maardu Linnameeskond
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	52%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.23JK Tallinna Kalev 1.92 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1.31

Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 55%

BTTSYes · 57%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Maardu Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

X 4.20 → 4.20 – 0%

2 3.40 → 3.40 – 0%

Over/Under 3.75

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 3–3–0 Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
21/11/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
23/09/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	4-2 HT 1-0	Maardu Linnameeskond
02/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
09/05/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-2 HT 1-1	Maardu Linnameeskond
11/01/20 Europe Friendlies	JK Tallinna Kalev	3-0 HT 1-0	Maardu Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	17	13	2	2	52	21	41
2	Viimsi JK	16	9	3	4	26	12	30
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	15	9	3	3	42	27	30
4	FC Elva	17	7	2	8	29	30	23
5	JK Tallinna Kalev	17	6	3	8	32	33	21
6	JK Nomme United II	16	5	4	7	31	37	19
7	Maardu Linnameeskond	16	5	4	7	20	33	19
8	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	17	6	0	11	30	33	18
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	16	5	2	9	26	40	17
10	FC Tallinn	17	3	5	9	21	43	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	Maardu Linnameeskond
JK Nomme Kalju II	5-1 W	2-1 W
JK Nomme United II	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-3 L	0-5 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-2 L	2-1 W
Viimsi JK	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Elva	1-3 L	3-4 L
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	0-0 D
Tartu JK Welco	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev

WDWDLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	6	6	L
31/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
27/05	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
24/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
14/05	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
09/05	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
01/05	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-4	3	7	D
27/04	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	4-0	8	1	W

Maardu Linnameeskond

DDLWWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	15	1	W
11/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-4	4	6	L
28/05	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	10	7	D
24/05	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
09/05	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
01/05	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
26/04	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/04	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	4	9	D