Tennis · WTA Iasi · 19/07, 16:30

Prediction: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa

Prediction summary

Winner

45% 55%

Mayar Sherif Paula Badosa

Estimated games

22.2Bet365 line 21.5

Recent form · 10 last

Mayar Sherif 8-2 (W-L)

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Paula Badosa 9-1 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Mayar Sherif 0–1 Paula Badosa (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mayar Sherif 1667 · Paula Badosa 1635

	Mayar Sherif	Paula Badosa
Our model	55%	45%
Market	38%	62%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Head-to-head: Mayar Sherif 0–1 Paula Badosa (1).
Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.2/match).

Statistics

	Mayar Sherif	Paula Badosa
Win %	90%	90%
Win % · Clay	100% (9)	100% (9)
Sets (G-P)	1.8-0.4	1.9-0.4
Games (G-P)	12.5-8.8	13.4-9.8
Aces	0.8	4.5
Double faults	2	6.2
1st serve %	59.5%	70.4%
Break %	50.8%	45.5%

Estimated total games (ours) 22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7

Over 21.5: 55% · 1.83 Under 21.5: 45% · 1.83

H2H · Mayar Sherif 0 – 1 Paula Badosa (1)

Odds Bet365

12.50

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.90

2 (-2.5)1.80

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.50▲	Bet365 2.50
2	1.57 → 1.53▼	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.2%

Time*	1	2
01:23 +8’	2.38	1.57
06:30 +2’	2.50▲	1.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mayar Sherif 0–1 Paula Badosa

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
04/04/23 WTA Charleston	0-2	4-12	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mayar Sherif

WWWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
18/07	Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Iasi · Clay	2-0	12-4	W
17/07	Yulia Putintseva WTA Iasi · Clay	2-1	16-14	W
16/07	Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Iasi · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
14/07	Dalma Galfi WTA Iasi · Clay	2-0	12-2	W
12/07	Jeline Vandromme WTA Contrexeville · Clay	2-1	17-17	W
11/07	Leolia Jeanjean WTA Contrexeville · Clay	2-0	14-11	W
10/07	Alicia Herrero Linana WTA Contrexeville · Clay	2-0	12-5	W
08/07	Amandine Hesse WTA Contrexeville · Clay	2-0	13-8	W
07/07	Yasmine Kabbaj WTA Contrexeville · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
23/06	Heather Watson Wimbledon Women · Grass	0-2	4-12	L

Paula Badosa

WWWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
18/07	Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay	2-1	17-17	W
17/07	Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay	2-0	13-10	W
16/07	Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay	2-1	14-16	W
14/07	Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay	2-0	12-4	W
11/07	Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay	2-0	14-10	W
10/07	Yulia Putintseva WTA Bastad · Clay	2-0	12-3	W
09/07	Varvara Lepchenko WTA Bastad · Clay	2-0	14-11	W
08/07	Emiliana Arango WTA Bastad · Clay	2-0	12-5	W
06/07	Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Bastad · Clay	2-0	12-5	W
30/06	Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass	1-2	14-17	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa?

Our model gives 55% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.