Tennis · ATP Estoril · 21/07, 13:00
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Jesper De Jong
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Choinski
Jesper De Jong
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Choinski
6-4 (W-L)
Jesper De Jong
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jan Choinski
1–1
Jesper De Jong
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1565 · Jesper De Jong 1538
| Jan Choinski | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan Choinski dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-11.6 | 13.7-12.9 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 8.6 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 41.8% | 34.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
H2H · Jan Choinski 1 – 1 Jesper De Jong (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jan Choinski 1–1 Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 ATP Dubai | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/03/24 Challenger Girona | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Joao Fonseca Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Rinky Hijikata Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 16/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Jesper De Jong?
Our model gives 51% to Jesper De Jong, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.