Tennis · ATP Bastad · 17/07, 15:30
Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
3-7 (W-L)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Tabilo
3–1
Thiago Agustin Tirante
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1534 · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1497
| Alejandro Tabilo | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Thiago Agustin Tirante dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo 3–1 Thiago Agustin Tirante (4).
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-13.7 | 13.9-14 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 26.3% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.3
Over 23.5: 65% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 35% · 1.80
H2H · Alejandro Tabilo 3 – 1 Thiago Agustin Tirante (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Tabilo 3–1 Thiago Agustin Tirante
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 ATP Santiago | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 21/02/26 ATP Rio De Janeiro | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 15/08/25 Challenger Cancun | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/01/22 ATP Cordoba | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Lautaro Midon ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 23/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 26/05 | Kamil Majchrzak French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Thiago Agustin Tirante
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-23 | L |
| 27/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 24/05 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-16 | W |
| 18/05 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Our model gives 54% to Alejandro Tabilo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.