Football · Uruguay League Women · 19/07, 19:00
Prediction: Defensor Sporting (W) vs FC San Jacinto (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.86Total
Defensor Sporting (W)2.93
FC San Jacinto (W)0.93
1X2
Defensor Sporting (W)
Draw
FC San Jacinto (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Defensor Sporting (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
FC San Jacinto (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensor Sporting (W)
3–0
FC San Jacinto (W)
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting (W) 1545 · FC San Jacinto (W) 1419
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Draw | FC San Jacinto (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 89% | 8% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.86 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensor Sporting (W) (rating 1545 vs 1419).
- H2H favours Defensor Sporting (W): 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensor Sporting (W) | FC San Jacinto (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1 / 3.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/50/25% | 0/33/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.6 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting (W) 3–0–0 FC San Jacinto (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Uruguay League Women | FC San Jacinto (W) | 0-2 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 29/06/25 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FC San Jacinto (W) |
| 25/10/20 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FC San Jacinto (W) |
Standings · Uruguay League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional De Football (W) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Penarol (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 24 |
| 3 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Montevideo City Torque (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| 7 | Canadian SC (W) | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 9 |
| 8 | Danubio (W) | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 7 |
| 9 | FC San Jacinto (W) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 34 | 3 |
| 10 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting (W) | FC San Jacinto (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Canadian SC (W) | 3-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 3-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Nacional De Football (W) | 0-8 L | 0-3 L |
| Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 3-2 W | 1-5 L |
| Danubio (W) | 0-0 D | 2-4 L |
| Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 5-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Montevideo City Torque (W) | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Penarol (W) | 0-1 L | 0-6 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Defensor Sporting (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 0-8 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/11 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
FC San Jacinto (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | CS Cerrito (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting (W) vs FC San Jacinto (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensor Sporting (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting (W) 84%, draw 11%, FC San Jacinto (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting (W) vs FC San Jacinto (W)?
The model expects 3.86 goals (Defensor Sporting (W) 2.93 · FC San Jacinto (W) 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting (W) vs FC San Jacinto (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.