Football · Uruguay League Women · 19/07, 14:00
Prediction: Nacional De Football (W) vs Penarol (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Nacional De Football (W)2.29
Penarol (W)0.88
1X2
Nacional De Football (W)
Draw
Penarol (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football (W)
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Penarol (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football (W)
3–2–1
Penarol (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional De Football (W) 1657 · Penarol (W) 1596
| Nacional De Football (W) | Draw | Penarol (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (W) (rating 1657 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football (W): 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football (W) | Penarol (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 83/17/0% | 33/67/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.2 | 3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football (W) 3–2–1 Penarol (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Uruguay League Women | Penarol (W) | 0-3 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 15/11/25 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Penarol (W) |
| 07/09/25 Uruguay League Women | Penarol (W) | 2-2 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 18/05/25 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 0-0 | Penarol (W) |
| 10/12/23 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Penarol (W) |
| 23/07/23 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Penarol (W) |
Standings · Uruguay League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional De Football (W) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Penarol (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 24 |
| 3 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Montevideo City Torque (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| 7 | Canadian SC (W) | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 9 |
| 8 | Danubio (W) | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 7 |
| 9 | FC San Jacinto (W) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 34 | 3 |
| 10 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional De Football (W) | Penarol (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 7-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC San Jacinto (W) | 3-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Defensor Sporting (W) | 8-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Danubio (W) | 4-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Montevideo City Torque (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 10-0 W | 7-1 W |
| Canadian SC (W) | 8-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 8 W 0 D 0 L | 8 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 7-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/11 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Penarol (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 7-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/11 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football (W) vs Penarol (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football (W) win (69%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football (W) 69%, draw 19%, Penarol (W) 12%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football (W) vs Penarol (W)?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Nacional De Football (W) 2.29 · Penarol (W) 0.88), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football (W) vs Penarol (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.