Football · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 · 19/07, 15:30
Prediction: CA Patrocinense vs Democrata SL
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
CA Patrocinense1.09
Democrata SL1.04
1X2
CA Patrocinense
Draw
Democrata SL
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CA Patrocinense
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Democrata SL
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Patrocinense
1–1–1
Democrata SL
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Patrocinense 1487 · Democrata SL 1529
| CA Patrocinense | Draw | Democrata SL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Market | 35% | 32% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Democrata SL (rating 1487 vs 1529).
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Patrocinense | Democrata SL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/50/25% | 56/33/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Patrocinense 1–1–1 Democrata SL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 | CA Patrocinense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Democrata SL |
| 05/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 | Democrata SL | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CA Patrocinense |
| 12/03/23 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro | CA Patrocinense | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Democrata SL |
Standings · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 · Mineiro, Modulo II 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valeriodoce EC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Democrata SL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Aymores | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Villa Nova | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 14 |
| 5 | Coimbra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| 6 | Ipatinga | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 33 | -2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Patrocinense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Mamore Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Guarani MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 02/07 | Caldense MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 12 | W |
| 28/06 | Uberaba Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/06 | Boa Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Boa Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/06 | Uberaba Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 14/06 | Caldense MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Guarani MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Mamore Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Democrata SL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/07 | Valeriodoce EC Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 24/06 | Villa Nova Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Villa Nova Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 13/06 | Valeriodoce EC Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Patrocinense vs Democrata SL?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Patrocinense win (35%). Probabilities: CA Patrocinense 35%, draw 32%, Democrata SL 33%.
How many goals are expected in CA Patrocinense vs Democrata SL?
The model expects 2.13 goals (CA Patrocinense 1.09 · Democrata SL 1.04), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Patrocinense vs Democrata SL?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.