Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 25/07, 00:30
Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Nacional De Football1.65
Club Atletico Progreso0.69
1X2
Nacional De Football
Draw
Club Atletico Progreso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Club Atletico Progreso
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football
5–1–0
Club Atletico Progreso
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1531 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.5 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.6 | 6.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 5–1–0 Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 23/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Nacional De Football | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 16/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 24/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 16/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Nacional De Football |
| 30/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Nacional De Football |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Nacional De Football | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Torque | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Atletico Progreso | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 7 | Albion FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 8 | Danubio | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional De Football | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Danubio | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Torque | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 27/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 12 | W |
| 21/05 | Universitario de Deportes Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Deportes Tolima Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 16/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 18/04 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (60%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 60%, draw 26%, Club Atletico Progreso 14%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Nacional De Football 1.65 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.69), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.