Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 25/07, 21:00
Prediction: Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Coquimbo Unido1.86
Universidad de Concepcion0.74
1X2
Coquimbo Unido
Draw
Universidad de Concepcion
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Coquimbo Unido
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Universidad de Concepcion
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Coquimbo Unido
2–1–3
Universidad de Concepcion
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coquimbo Unido 1533 · Universidad de Concepcion 1474
| Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coquimbo Unido (rating 1533 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Universidad de Concepcion: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coquimbo Unido | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 1.3 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coquimbo Unido 2–1–3 Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 17/09/21 Chile Primera B | Universidad de Concepcion | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 10/05/21 Chile Primera B | Coquimbo Unido | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 07/02/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 21/10/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 27/07/19 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 12 | 36 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 24 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Huachipato | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| 7 | Everton de Vina | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Nublense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 20 |
| 11 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | La Serena | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 13 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Coquimbo Unido | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| O'Higgins | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad de Concepcion (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coquimbo Unido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 09/07 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Deportes Iquique Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 02/07 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Deportes Iquique Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 01/07 | Nublense Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 26/06 | Nublense Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Nublense Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Coquimbo Unido win (63%). Probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 63%, draw 23%, Universidad de Concepcion 14%.
How many goals are expected in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Coquimbo Unido 1.86 · Universidad de Concepcion 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.