Football · Uruguay Segunda · 19/07, 18:30

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.63

CA Atenas1.08

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw CA Atenas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDDLWL

CA Atenas 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3–3 CA Atenas (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1495 · CA Atenas 1537

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	CA Atenas
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Atenas (rating 1495 vs 1537).
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	CA Atenas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.9	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.5	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.10 → 1.85 ▼ -11.9%

X 3.20 → 3.30 ▲ +3.1%

2 3.10 → 3.80 ▲ +22.6%

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3–0–3 CA Atenas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-4 HT 0-2	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
26/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-2 HT 1-2	CA Atenas
03/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
21/10/18 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-1 HT 0-0	CA Atenas
22/04/18 Uruguay Apertura	CA Atenas	3-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
11/04/15 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-2 HT 1-0	CA Atenas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	CA Atenas
Paysandu FC	0-1 L	3-2 W
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	0-1 L
Uruguay Montevideo	2-3 L	2-1 W
CA River Plate	3-1 W	2-0 W
Rentistas	1-1 D	1-3 L
Miramar Misiones	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tacuarembo	1-2 L	2-0 W
Plaza Colonia	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Atenas (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

WLDDWDDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
27/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-3	9	11	L
20/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
31/05	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/05	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
17/05	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
10/05	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	7	11	W

CA Atenas

WLWWLWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-3	6	11	L
06/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
27/06	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
21/06	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
14/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-0	4-0	0	2	W
07/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
31/05	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/05	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
17/05	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/05	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (49%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 49%, draw 27%, CA Atenas 24%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.63 · CA Atenas 1.08), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.