Football · Colombia Primera A · 25/07, 21:00

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Boyaca Chico1.14

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.28

1X2

32% 30% 38%

Boyaca Chico Draw Atletico Nacional Medellin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWDL

Atletico Nacional Medellin 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWLWL

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Atletico Nacional Medellin (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1478 vs 1553).
H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.94

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.17 → 5.17	Pinn 5.17
X	3.69 → 3.69	Pinn 3.69
2	1.66 → 1.66	Pinn 1.66

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18	5.17	3.69	1.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Atletico Nacional Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4-0 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico
06/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
17/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4-1 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico
29/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	6-2 HT 4-1	Boyaca Chico
17/03/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	2-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
22/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-3 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Pasto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aguilas Doradas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alianza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	America de Cali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boyaca Chico	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Bucaramanga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Junior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Once Caldas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportes Tolima	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cucuta Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Cali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Pereira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortaleza CEIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Independiente Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Independiente Santa Fe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Internacional de Bogota	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaguares de Cordoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llaneros	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Millonarios	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Internacional de Bogota	0-4 L	7-1 W
Atletico Bucaramanga	0-5 L	2-0 W
Deportivo Pereira	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Boyaca Chico

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/05	Llaneros Colombia Cup	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
23/05	Millonarios Colombia Cup	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
16/05	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Cup	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
07/05	Patriotas FC Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/05	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
27/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
23/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
13/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
02/04	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	8	9	W

Atletico Nacional Medellin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Deportivo Tachira America Friendlies	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
09/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	13	6	W
03/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	3	8	L
24/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
17/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	2-1	7-1	9	1	W
09/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/05	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
25/04	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
21/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (38%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 32%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 38%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Boyaca Chico 1.14 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.