Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Siauliai
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
FK Kauno Zalgiris2.41
FK Siauliai0.72
1X2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Draw
FK Siauliai
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kauno Zalgiris
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
FK Siauliai
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kauno Zalgiris
4–2–0
FK Siauliai
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1549 · FK Siauliai 1447
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | Draw | FK Siauliai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris (rating 1549 vs 1447).
- H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | FK Siauliai | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.5 | 2.5 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris 4–2–0 FK Siauliai
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Siauliai |
| 15/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Siauliai | 0-5 HT 0-2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 17/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FK Siauliai |
| 20/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Siauliai | 2-2 HT 1-2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 23/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FK Siauliai |
| 29/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Siauliai | 2-3 HT 2-1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 30 |
| 3 | Banga Gargzdai | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 30 |
| 5 | FK Transinvest | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 28 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 29 | 19 |
| 8 | Panevezys | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 19 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 37 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kauno Zalgiris | FK Siauliai |
|---|---|---|
| Panevezys | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| FK Transinvest | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Banga Gargzdai | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Suduva Marijampole | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | KF Drita UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 07/07 | KF Drita UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
FK Siauliai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 29/06 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 20/06 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 16/06 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 25/05 | FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | FK Ataka Lithuania Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Siauliai?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kauno Zalgiris win (74%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris 74%, draw 17%, FK Siauliai 9%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Siauliai?
The model expects 3.13 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris 2.41 · FK Siauliai 0.72), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Siauliai?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.