Football · Australia Tasmania Championship · 18/07, 06:30
Prediction: Hobart City FC vs Clarence Zebras Reserves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.47Total
Hobart City FC2.48
Clarence Zebras Reserves1.98
1X2
Hobart City FC
Draw
Clarence Zebras Reserves
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hobart City FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Clarence Zebras Reserves
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hobart City FC
5–1
Clarence Zebras Reserves
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hobart City FC 1569 · Clarence Zebras Reserves 1487
| Hobart City FC | Draw | Clarence Zebras Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| Market | 49% | 20% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.47 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hobart City FC (rating 1569 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Hobart City FC: 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hobart City FC | Clarence Zebras Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.5 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.3 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hobart City FC 5–0–1 Clarence Zebras Reserves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia Tasmania Championship | Clarence Zebras Reserves | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Hobart City FC |
| 05/07/25 Australia Tasmania Championship | Hobart City FC | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Clarence Zebras Reserves |
| 11/04/25 Australia Tasmania Championship | Clarence Zebras Reserves | 0-6 HT 0-3 | Hobart City FC |
| 10/08/24 Australia Tasmania Championship | Clarence Zebras Reserves | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Hobart City FC |
| 01/06/24 Australia Tasmania Championship | Hobart City FC | 4-1 HT 4-1 | Clarence Zebras Reserves |
| 03/09/22 Australia Tasmania Championship | Hobart City FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Clarence Zebras Reserves |
Standings · Australia Tasmania Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart FC 2 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | Olympia FC Warriors | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 19 | 25 |
| 3 | Hobart City FC | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 24 | 25 |
| 4 | New Town Eagles | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 23 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras Reserves | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 30 | 22 |
| 6 | Taroona | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 18 |
| 7 | Hobart United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 62 | 8 |
| 8 | University of Tasmania | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 48 | 7 |
| 9 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 47 | 5 |
| 10 | South East United FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hobart City FC | Clarence Zebras Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Hobart United | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| University of Tasmania | 5-2 W | 1-4 L |
| New Town Eagles | 2-2 D | 1-6 L |
| Taroona | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 3-1 W | 8-0 W |
| Olympia FC Warriors | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| South Hobart FC 2 | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Hobart City FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hobart City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship |
3-0 | 5-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
Clarence Zebras Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
5-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-3 | 1-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hobart City FC vs Clarence Zebras Reserves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hobart City FC win (49%). Probabilities: Hobart City FC 49%, draw 20%, Clarence Zebras Reserves 31%.
How many goals are expected in Hobart City FC vs Clarence Zebras Reserves?
The model expects 4.47 goals (Hobart City FC 2.48 · Clarence Zebras Reserves 1.98), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hobart City FC vs Clarence Zebras Reserves?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.