Football · Latvia Virsliga · 19/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

FK Auda1.56

FK Liepaja1.07

1X2

48% 26% 26%

FK Auda Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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FK Liepaja 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Auda 3–1–2 FK Liepaja (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1529 · FK Liepaja 1498

	FK Auda	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Auda: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +2’	1.83	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 3–1–2 FK Liepaja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Latvia Cup	FK Auda	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja
22/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Liepaja
08/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Auda
20/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Liepaja
27/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Auda
24/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	22	18	2	2	54	16	56
2	Riga FC	22	17	4	1	65	19	55
3	FK Auda	22	12	4	6	37	26	40
4	FK Liepaja	22	8	4	10	28	34	28
5	BFC Daugavpils	22	7	6	9	25	29	27
6	FK Jelgava	22	6	7	9	24	38	25
7	SK Super Nova	22	7	3	12	23	35	24
8	SC Grobinas	22	4	8	10	15	33	20
9	Tukums 2000	22	3	8	11	37	44	17
10	Ogre United	22	3	4	15	21	55	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	FK Liepaja
RFS	1-1 D	0-2 L
Riga FC	0-2 L	0-4 L
SC Grobinas	0-0 D	0-1 L
SK Super Nova	2-0 W	2-1 W
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	3-0 W
Ogre United	2-0 W	4-0 W
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Auda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Cup	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
17/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
30/05	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	11	W
26/05	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
22/05	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W

FK Liepaja

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
11/07	FK Auda Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
21/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
16/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
12/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
30/05	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Auda win (48%). Probabilities: FK Auda 48%, draw 26%, FK Liepaja 26%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 2.63 goals (FK Auda 1.56 · FK Liepaja 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.